Aug

19

 Jim Cramer keeps yelling that September is a bullish month for gold– and that viewers should "BUY NOW!" to participate in this inenvitable September rally. Is this ballyhoo? Or is there a persistent bias?

For Septembers since 1992 (from before the current bull market), gold has risen 14 out of 18 times. For Augusts since 1992, gold has risen 9 out of 18 times. And there's only been one occurence when a positive August was not followed by a positive September. But is this statistically significant?

Monthly % Change

Sept

Aug

2009

5
0.1

2008
6.3
-11

2007
10.8
1.2

2006
-4.9
-1.7

2005
7.79
2.5

2004
2.4
4.2

2003
2.4
5.7

2002
2.5

3

2001
6.3
2.8

2000
-1.3
-0.2

1999

21
-0.3

1998

9
-2.8

1997

2.6

0

1996
-1.7
0.2

1995
2.6
-0.3

1994
2.5
0.9

1993

-4
-8.3

1992
2.4
-3.9

mean
3.98
-0.44

stdev
5.97
4.12

Kim Zussman adds:

The attached is a comparison of monthly mean returns for ETF GLD, ca 11/04-present. For the etfgoldbugera sapiens, September is good, second only to November (though none significantly different from the global mean).


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