Aug

19

Jim Cramer keeps yelling that September is a bullish month for gold– and that viewers should "BUY NOW!" to participate in this inenvitable September rally. Is this ballyhoo? Or is there a persistent bias?

For Septembers since 1992 (from before the current bull market), gold has risen 14 out of 18 times. For Augusts since 1992, gold has risen 9 out of 18 times. And there's only been one occurence when a positive August was not followed by a positive September. But is this statistically significant?

Monthly % Change

Sept

Aug

2009

5
0.1

2008
6.3
-11

2007
10.8
1.2

2006
-4.9
-1.7

2005
7.79
2.5

2004
2.4
4.2

2003
2.4
5.7

2002
2.5

3

2001
6.3
2.8

2000
-1.3
-0.2

1999

21
-0.3

1998

9
-2.8

1997
2.6

0

1996
-1.7
0.2

1995
2.6
-0.3

1994
2.5
0.9

1993
-4
-8.3

1992
2.4
-3.9

mean
3.98
-0.44

stdev
5.97
4.12

Kim Zussman adds:

The attached is a comparison of monthly mean returns for ETF GLD, ca 11/04-present. For the etfgoldbugera sapiens, September is good, second only to November (though none significantly different from the global mean).


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  1. Sumit Agrawal on August 20, 2010 3:32 pm

    Adding on to the ideas above, it would be also important to compute statistics for how much Sep outperformed the other months historically.

    If we were to draw monthly return series distribution every year, does Sep usually return higher than the mean.

    That may further illuminate.

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