Aug
16
Thoughts on The Dictionary of Theories, from Victor Niederhoffer
August 16, 2010 |
In the Dictionary of Theories, which contains an enumeration and 2 par explanation of 5000 different theories, I come across the question of how many theories in different fields have applicability to ours. The question makes one think that there are vast areas for formulating hypotheses and that many simple theories in one field are applicable in others. The almost exact relation between electricity and magnetism, and the many dualities in different fields leads one to search for general theories as well.
One of the most suggestive theories I came across in the dictionary was the Correspondence Theory. It says thats what true of the microscopic level is true of the macroscopic. I wish that were true. I studied the bid asked 50 years ago, and found many regularities. I have made a few augmentations at the microscopic level since then, but one wishes that they held up at the macro level.
One notes that when I found that closing prices tended inordinately to cluster at the round numbers in 1962 operation research, my thesis adviser at the flexionic university said I'd have a hard time getting it through the acceptance mill since it was really not economics. But now I note that almost half the articles in AER are of a market microculture level or expectations relating there to level.
Alston Mabry writes:
Concerning your thesis, this is a good example of how the quantity of new theories and published papers is related to how much work is required and what tools are available. Studying market microstructure is so easy now compared to back in the day.
George Coyle shares:
Here is an academic paper on micromolar theory:
A micromolar approach to behavior theory. Logan, Frank A. Psychological Review, Vol 63(1), Jan 1956, 63-73
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Two recent scientific theories I find interesting: first, bacteria causing rain (”bacteria infects a plant, multiplies, is aerosolized into the atmosphere and then delivered to a new plant through atmospheric precipitation.”) http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/02/080228174801.htm
Second: plankton causing hurricanes. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/15/plankton-cause-hurricanes-urgent-action-required/
Bacteria plays an intermediary role producing DMS, and ” Sulfur in the DMS sticks together in the air and creates tiny dust-like particles. These particles are just the right size for water to condense on, which is the beginning of how clouds are formed.”
Individual bacteria have quite limited thinking power (and bacteria politicians presumably have less), but with 5,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 (five million, trillion, trillion), that’s a lot of bacteria action in response to scarcity. (http://www.answerbag.com/q_view/492401 ).
People carry an estimated two to nine pounds of bacteria, all working on particular projects, with 2-4 pounds in our digestive track. 85% is said to be beneficial to digestion and particularly beneficial containing the evil designs of the other 15% plotting to do us harm.
We should be able to develop theories of bacteria influencing financial markets.
And in a related theory: bacteria cause heart disease. As I finished my earlier post I received an email from our college intern telling me her father had just had a heart attack. I remember her earlier telling me her mother was diagnosed with lyme disease. The connection is proposed in the theory of oral spirochetes that cause both gum disease, lyme disease and heart disease/inflation.
Apparently government regulations make it difficult for MDs studying heart disease to venture into the oral domain of periodontists: “We also discussed whether Physicians have the right to treat Oral Lyme Disease (Periodontal Disease). He felt that he had the legal right since it was a systemic disease and Physicians are responsible for the whole body, not just everything other than the oral cavity. Also, he is looking into getting an Hygienist. This is a very significant step for a Physician, but he realizes the systemic implications of oral spirochetes.” (http://lymebook.com/nordquist/uncategorized/i-just-spent-my-saturday-afternoon-with-one-smart-md/)
I have no idea if William Nordquist’s research in this area has been independently replicated (his is author of “The Stealth Killer: Is oral Spirochetosis the Missing Link in the Dental-Heart Disease Labyrinth?”. But the history of medical research is replete with unexpected connections between different fields of research (as when it turned out that bacteria caused most ulcers). That story is told in Fortune, and here: http://www.vianet.net.au/~bjmrshll/features2.html (and Barry Marshall later did win the Nobel Prize. His lecture here: http://nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/medicine/laureates/2005/marshall-lecture.pdf
This Forbes article, also notes bacteria’s role in heart disease (”Today the idea that bacteria and viruses can cause chronic diseases, such as many cancers of the throat, stomach and cervix, is well established. The bacterium Chlamydia pneumonia is strongly suspected of playing a role in coronary heart disease.”) http://members.forbes.com/forbes/2006/1211/048.html