Aug

13

The small chart below is trade by trade buying on the open of the 13th, exit first profitable open or 3,600 stop. In the S&P 500 since 1982 there have been 46 trades. 80% were profitable and not stopped out– but, always a but…risk reward is .48 and drawdown was equal to a little less than 1/2 the net profits. Bottom line: looks like an advantage that might be traded by the nimble but a filter would help. Happy trails to all.

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2 Comments so far

  1. Kevin Lewis on August 13, 2010 12:53 pm

    I wonder what Max Gunther would have to say about this?

  2. korareddy on August 18, 2010 2:28 am

    wannabe from india, shares a co-incidence around NIFTY & am not sure how this irrational fear has cropped up in India though !

    if today is FRI the 13th & buy at open and exit at close;

    last 10 years
    Total # of trades 15
    Percent profitable 67%
    Number of winning trades 10
    Number of losing trades 5

    Largest winning trade % 3.9%
    Largest losing trade % -2.4%
    Average winning trade % 1.6%
    Average losing trade % -0.8%
    Average profit per trade % 0.8%

    Max consecutive winners 4
    Max consecutive losers 2

    Max drawdown % -3.25%
    Profit factor 7.0
    t-stat 2.70

    and the 16th trade ( i.e last Friday was a winner with 0.6% gain!)

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