Jul

23

Clever HansThere is the famous story about the horse that could do basic math, but was really picking up on the subtle clues of the professor that "thought" him when to stop stomping the hoof. I suspect this was what Paul [The Octopus] was doing also.

However, intuition comes with experience. Intuition can be counted, to help figure out how you "knew" or if it pure personal biases and random.

Marlowe Cassetti comments:

Isn't that what they refer to as self confirmation bias? I know someone who showed me how using Stochastic Oscillator (a BS misnomer) of several time spans one can make great profits trading options. When I point out some glaring exceptions that he conveniently overlooked, he counters that no indicator is perfect. Believing is seeing, but don't quit your day job.


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  1. Russell Sears on July 30, 2010 10:51 am

    I do not disagree with Mr. Cassetti that extra rigor must be included when you are “counting” your own intuition. Self coaching and like self diagonis has its own built in biases.
    However, one practice I used with my running was to keep a diary, and write down what you did and why you did things each day. Then after each breakdown, or failed race you can often pick up what you did wrong, after reading the journal.
    Having data on your plan, and comparing it to actual execution and results has helped me find when I tend to be right and when I am wrong. Further, carrying this over to others, has helped me decide who is just getting lucky, versus those that know what they are doing.
    Still a good coach or a good doctor, can often help find your blind spots better with that data than you .

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