Jul

29

 Recently I have posited that the market to an inordinate degree shows the main attributes in its daily moves of the most vivid sports game that has not been used. I would add to this that during each hour the market is likely to move to the rhythms and dynamics of the most likely classical music being played on a classical music station in home town, for example the former WQXR in New York, in full knowledge that these programs are often selected 2 months in advance, and noting that I was a subscriber to same when I was 12 years old.

I am adding to my list of mystical encampments and predictions that the fortunes of Apple and Lady Gaga will follow a similar arc in the future, and as soon as the Lady loses her luster, or a substantial base of her gay support, Apple will be ready to nose dive.

Do you feel that because of these ideas that I should resign my post as chair of Daily Spec which is designed to deflate bally hoo, or is this just a symptom of that predilection that old men such as the sage and the fake doc have to maintain their romantic aura?

Ken Drees writes:

Lebron James' Cavs win over the bulls to end that series correlates to the spy top (04/27/10). That was the zenith of his career in Cleveland. They were then going into Boston on a full tank of expectations. The last game (as a cav) in that series marked a secondary top 08/13/10–then the melodrama begins. His great choice to go to Miami did not mark the low but was the midpoint of the latest rally—he is losing his market moving mojo–his ability to focus the market energy . So now he has lost his core fan support like lady gaga at some point will lose her core fan base. No, I don't think the Chair is that off-kilter.

Popular culture icons somehow bleed into market consciousness.

Vince Fulco writes:

I've long thought that the culture has moved into a greater phase of bally hoo, perhaps a derivative of the Romans' 'Bread & Circuses'. We are now just starting to realize or are being forced to understand that flat incomes, poorly funded retirements and insufficient skills in the aggregate set against historically outsized obligations are a recipe for disaster. Fighting falsehoods would seem to be a necessity of survival and good investing for the long haul. Moreover, one has great opportunities to choose from post deflation.

Jim Lackey shares: 

Actually no. AAPL has talent and is'nt just a fad or a show. Not sayin' that the Lady doesn't have talent, but if and when I see her write and produce tunes for others and sing Jazz, then she will be an AAPL. But no! No I did buy AAPl in 2003 when Mr. Eyerman stood right here on list and said buy it now. Jobs is back, and Itunes is brilliant. It's been a ten bagger since, which is what got me to tell the father in law naaa na na no this Xmas as he was on visit to Music City and toyed with his new Iphone all week. He's a MD and a tech freak and he said, "you know what, I don't need a PC or internet at home anymore with this"

It's not CSCO when it was on the way to a trillion dollar market cap in year 2,000. It's post crash now. Also it's no shorted up fad stock, but yes it's a fashion device an ipod in all 3 colors for different outfits. If I had to guess its a DELL circa late 90's. It never crashed and burned until much later in the tech wreck. It just stopped going up and in these markets AAPL must trade 299.75 but not 300. ha. 

Craig Mee writes:

Just like Seinfeld had the bravery to sell the high and knock back the 10Mil for a tenth season, (one of a tiny minority who do) maybe the gagas and apples should too. To keep up the product development and create new bizarreness no doubt gets harder and harder with everyone hot on your tail. Im sure income changes, say for Seinfeld, from shows to marketing, but he has been smart enough to cut and run, and keep the value. A lesson for us all. 

Marlowe Cassetti writes:

The chair has touched on a point of interest that has bothered me. I don’t know about Lady Gaga, but Apple’s climb towards the top of market valuation appears to be inline with the phenomenon of a bubble. Yes, I understand that we cannot declare a bubble until it bursts, but let’s look at the facts:

There are some 47 stock analysts that cover AAPL, all but two have either a buy or a strong buy recommendation. It is the darling of the market. Its market cap is approaching $ ¼ trillion and at the rate it is moving it is on its way to challenge Exxon Mobile Corp. XOM produces stuff that the world needs, AAPL doesn’t produce stuff that the world needs just what they like to have, until something else strikes their fancy.

It reminds me in the 1980's when people couldn't buy enough Wang stock. You hadn't arrived if your office didn't sport a Wang word processor. The bubble will burst when the last fool buys in at a nose bleed price.

Thomas Miller writes:

 Sometimes one's instincts or gut feelings can't be counted or explained but you feel its true. Probably based on years of different observations made subconsciously. A trader may feel strongly a market is about to break without being able to explain exactly why, because subconsciously they have seen patterns many times before. Considering the source, I wouldn't immediately dismiss this as ballyhoo. Instead of resigning, further testing is called for.

Steve Ellison comments: 

Mr. Aronson noted in his book that it is no fun being a skeptic and that the scientific method leaves deep human yearnings unfulfilled. Facts are often tedious and dull, but stories are captivating, which is why people who have bought into a narrative continue believing it even when presented with strong counterfactuals. "Story stocks" have always been prominent in bull markets.

 

Marion Dreyfus writes:

A new study reveals that people are at their angriest on Thursdays. Thus, perhaps deals might better be made on Friday, when people are delightfully anticipating the weekend, or Monday, when they are somnolently reviewing the events of their past free-time indulgences.

interesting … We have been doing product development on a tool to gather data, and do reduction for self-introspection to find and permit prediction of cyclic true 'more productive' highs, and 'down in the dumps' lows.

Jim Wildman comments:

I've been thinking a lot about rhythms. I've noticed on the treadmill at the Y that people tend to fall into step with each other. Being on treadmills, this is easier since you can be running at different speeds, but the same step count. It creates an interesting effect when the treadmills are on a suspended 2nd story as it was at the last gym. I've wondered how many people it would take to collapse the floor.

This study seems to indicate that there are (at least tendencies towards) rhythms in 'group' emotions. What other rhythms are there and how do they affect me? How do they affect the markets?

Vincent Andres adds:

Here is a good paper on this topic of frequency coupling

Some more infor:

Steven Strogatz

Steven Strogatz's publications

A good book

TED video (look at the part on fireflies, near the 10th minute on metronomes (1st historical notice by Huygens), near the 13th minute and the bridge (not Tacoma … but not very far !)… in fact the whole video examples are interesting). 

Easan Katir writes:

In a year when Paul the Octopus correctly picked 7 consecutive wins, well-documented to the world, when the underwater plume in the Gulf of Mexican Oil matched the plume of gritty ash from Eyjafjallajokull, and the rig explosion coincided with the April market top, who can say anymore what is mystical and what isn't. Lead on, Chair! Lead on!

Craig Mee writes:

Looks like Schumacher should of stayed off the track, as HIS value, now may be plummeting: "For all his greatness, he never knows when to give up. He is a shadow of his former self," added hugely experienced former driver David Coulthard" Ouch!


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4 Comments so far

  1. douglas roberts dimick on July 30, 2010 7:07 pm

    Our First Minority President and Second Herbert Hoover Presidency?

    Deflate bally-hoo, predilections of old men, romantic aura?

    Market analogies and correlations with sports appear to have been and remain a steady feed for this domain as do related symbiotics of classical music, as the chair has so written and reported from time to time…

    Is there an equivalent to W. F. Buckley’s (Firing Line) Brandenburg Concerto pulsating the debate within and among markets?

    Why should Apple and Gaga be any different in the prognostications department here?

    Likewise, in such good form… Between continued funding of a war that he was not going to fund and continued rewarding (financially as well as via nonprosecution) of those who perpetrated the crisis (that is a crash), which has resulted with the current recession (that is a depression based on unemployment correlations to the last one a la 1929), so magnified by the acceleration of historically significant federal debt (see KZ’s article, “Deficit Rise Foretells…”), and one may add to our mystical encampments of politicos that the ghost of The Hoover Administration is upon us now…

    As she so aptly lays it out…

    “Cause it’s a hard life (hard life)
    With love in the world
    And I’m a hard girl
    Loving me’s like chewing on pearls (chewing on pearls)

    Cause it’s a hard life (hard life)
    With love in the world
    And I’m a hard girl
    Loving me’s like straightening curls
    (straightening curls)”

    http://www.mp3bag.net/2470-Lady_GaGa_-_I_Like_It_Rough.html

    dr

  2. Steve on August 1, 2010 9:09 am

    There is a scene in Patton when the General describes how the Caesar would parade in front of his people after a great conquest. Patton went on to explain that on the chariot next to the Caesar was a centurion who spoke in his ear “Sic Transit Gloria Mundi”. Loosly translated is means “All fame is fleeting.” Thus the caution is there not to be carried away with the moment.

    We see this in so many sports figures, celebrities and businesses.

    Len Bias described as the franchise of the Boston Celtics found dead of a cocaine overdose after signing with the team and never playing a game of professional basketball.

    Pete Rose, the all-time hits leader banned from baseball for life. He is not even on the ballot for the Hall of Fame. Other notables who live under a permanent cloud of controversy Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire.

    O.J. Simpson revered as possibly the greatest running back in American Football now in prison.

    Dale Earnhardt the most revered driver in NASCAR killed on a racetrack.

    Mike Tyson who after earning $500 Million in boxing purses claims bankruptcy.

    Tiger Woods man who seemingly never had a hair out of place or made an inappropriate public comment isperhaps the most notorious of character due to his infidelity.

    Lindsey Lohan, Paris Hilton, Martha Stewart, Robert Downey jr. Wesley Snipes all convicted criminals in their own right.

    The lives are all out there to view and should be examined as to the events that led to their downfall. As Napolean reminds us “Man who does not study history is destined to repeat it.”

  3. Steve on August 1, 2010 1:50 pm

    There are great stocks and there are great companies and they are not the same. And they may not be the same at the same time. After the crash of 08 Goldman was the buy of a generation. Apple same, MS was at 5 Goog, others. Today who knows?

    Valuations do get grossly out of whack. CSCO, JDSU, ORCL, in 2000

    Country wide, Hovnanian in 2005 and 06.

    Enron.

    Cycles always cycles. watch the cycles.

    A Rod hits 599 and now has had 42 plate appearances across 9 games to date.

    One last thought the longer the base the bigger the breakout. Study Behavioral Finance by Hersh Shefrin pure must reading.

    In order to be successful in a game, learn the rules of the game.

    meet me at facebook add me as a friend. and may I suggest we administrate a Facebook page on daily speculations.

    Thoughts?

  4. Andre Wallin on August 1, 2010 7:27 pm

    Since senses are objective and ideas subjective shouldn’t we treat our feelings about something as more important than ideas we may be able to express in words. However, the feelings have to be untainted by the trappigs of being a human being. Only feelings which we have in our most neutral state should be acted upon. Maintaining that neutral state is a lifelong challenge and I hope with practice I may be able to maintain the state for longer periods of time. Also realizing with absolute certainty that I am not in the correct state and maintaining inactivity while society values activity so much is so difficult. It is isolating and painful. I guess you don’t get something for nothing

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