Jul

14

 It is  interesting that the flexions in Japan did not get the Intel earnings before hand and that no frequent conversations between current and former heads of banks, who were then secretaries of interior took place on the record as they did so frequently during the crisis of Sep and Oct 2008. 3 or 4 times a day.

Rocky Humbert writes:

I interpret The Chair's comment that either Intel leaks its earnings to the Japanese, or that the Nikkei has been a good predictor of Intel earnings since 2008. A very crude event study shows that this has not been the case for the past two years.

Below are the Intel earnings release date(s) since 2008. The first +/- is the market's reaction to the Intel earnings release. The second +/- is the net change of the Nikkei on the day of the Intel announcement. Due to time zone difference, the Nikkei closes about 10 hours before the Intel announcement.

In four of the eight instances, the Nikkei was not predictive, and based on this small and statistically insignificant sample size, this relationship was not tradeable. I would further suggest that any data which suggests otherwise can be attributed to chance — despite any statistical illusions to the contrary.

Looking at this from the perspective of an investor (as opposed to a speculator,) I purchased a small amount of Intel recently because (1) it remains a market-leader in its sector with limited competition and huge barriers to entry; (2) based on reasonable assumptions, its valuation became attractive again; (3) its yield was greater than the 10 year treasury, and it was a high probability that owning Intel with a reasonable time horizon would achieve a return in excess of the "riskless" ten-year treasury. With the move from 19 to 22, this may no longer be true.

Yet, with respect to The Chair's comment, it's logically impossible to disprove a conspiracy theory.
Earnings Date / Intel +/- / Nikkei Day Before +/-

7/13/10 + -

4/13/10 + -

1/14/10 - -

10/13/09 + holiday

7/14/09 + +

4/14/09 - -

1/15/09 + -

10/14/08 - +

7/15/08 - -
 


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