Jun
22
The Reason, by Victor Niederhoffer
June 22, 2010 |
Of the reason that was the reason that federer almost lost as cervantes would say is that he was concerned and distracted by the play of his beloved swiss soccer team. What other distractions lead to losses in the market?
Jay Pasch comments:
ringing telephones (never again)
a 3-martini lunch (never again)
one's own imagination regarding what one thinks the market is going to do,
delusion (again and again)
Victor Niederhoffer responds:
Romance?
Nick White writes:
Beloveds of any kind, one would imagine. Good natured banter amongst one's associates can take mind off the job. I'm coming to see the Chair's wisdom of no noise, no talking, no intra-day distractions. It really does make a difference. However, it seems to me that perhaps there should be some distinction between "on" and "off" modes. When on, full noise / distraction lockdown. When off…well, game on. Like a firestation or military on alert.
Marion Dreyfus comments:
Safety issues
If one is immobilized by concerns about the outside world such as familial well being, adverse weather or unsafe streets, one cannot be free to fully concentrate
Indeed it becomes a juggling act–which concern will prevail?
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The fact, and shame, of sport is that even the greatest of all time eventually lose their dominance. Whether it is age, physical deterioration, mental fatigue, or new personal interests, sooner or later all champions face inevitable declines in performance. For Federer, he does not have any real reasons to play any more unless his intent is to try to keep some distance in slams versus his nearest current threat of Nadal. Federer has plenty of money, he is a dedicated husband and father, and he has a growing charitable organization. Though he intends to play 3 or 4 more years, winning majors is going to be more difficult. The odds of being so historically dominant are now against him and his own life off the court is taking more attention from his on court activity. He will win 3-4 more majors, but we shouldn’t be so surprised if we see him get bounced out early any more.
Watching Brasil play at the World Cup…or rooting against Argentina!
Noise, constant noise coming from screens, the people, the customers, the partners, the boss, all confusing the messages hidden in the facts of past numbers.