Jun
25
Market Hypothesis, by Victor Niederhoffer
June 25, 2010 |
I hypothesize that one of the emergent themes of complex messes like our markets is that they follow the example of vivid sports games. Like today, I don't think it chance that the market went up as Federer received the standing applauds and then went down as disaster loomed , and finally rallied right back when he won by a gnats eyelash thereby setting himself up for a disastrous loss in the next few rounds. Call me a nut case or non-quantitative person for saying this, but I believe it.
Sumit Agrawal comments:
If anyone else had said this, it would be the last time I would seriously discuss Anything with him.
But now that you say the same, then I would just say smart men have their quirks, and it is good to have quirks as it instantaneously makes one different , and may you silently enjoy your quirks in warm company of affectionate friends who overlook them with ease!
Word of advice is that one should not wear their quirks on their sleeve, for the public to see. The public is most likely to make an easy and a harsh judgment.
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Trading GBP/USD based on this strategy would be equally profitable today, as the swings over the past 2 hours were tied to the scores of each game.
Sumit, a wise man named Bacon said, “Always copper the public,” which means that the public is mostly wrong. Who cares what the public’s judgement is?