May

27

Freud's couch"Human nature is the one stock market factor that never changes. It is the one constant quantity. All other market factors are variables. Because these influences are variable, it is usually fatal to judge what the market will do now by considering what it did, under seemingly identical circumstances, at some other time. No two situations are ever quite the same.

"Since the one unchanging element is human nature, the successful speculator must be a practical psychologist. In other words, he must know human nature. To attempt to forecast market trends by any plan in which human psychology isn't fundamental, leads sooner or later to trouble. The speculator finds constantly before him a bewildering variety of attempts to super-educate him, by means of high-priced economic services, brokers' letters, financial pages and what not — all pointing out conditions under which he should buy or sell certain stocks. If he happens to be statistically minded, he can find plausible reasons for believing almost anything….His one safeguard is to keep asking himself: 'What are the big boys doing now to fool me?"

Source: How Shrewd Speculators Win, by Kelly and Burgess, Fraser Publishing Company (1932)


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