May

24

Nadal and FedererThe truly knowledgeable tennis fan who was fortunate to watch the Nadal-Federer match last week in Madrid should walk away from that match knowing who will win Roland Garros this year. It will not be Nadal. Market enthusiasts should take comfort in the Nadal-Federer market correlation which was invented by this writer.

Federer did not play that match with the intent on winning. He was using it as a set-up for the high probability that he and Nadal would play 3 Sundays later for the title in Paris. Federer easily could have won that match after blowing the first set and dumping the tiebreaker. I was at first aghast at Federer’s careless play, but as I continued to watch the match I realized that he was using the match as an experiment first, outcome second.

Federer was able to establish patterns of play that I had never seen out of him in all previous matches with Nadal. He has planted seeds of confidence in his mind, and seeds of concern in Nadal.

Sure enough, the US futures sank upon the open that Sunday evening, and the market dumped all of last week. It is hard to know what might transpire over the next 10 mkt sessions leading up to the final in 13 days, but I assure you that in the event there is a Federer-Nadal confrontation, it won’t even be close. Federer in straight sets, perhaps four, and the market will have made the low for a considerable time.


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