May

24

nadalPittsburgh Phil would have a field day with this 4-11 odds on Nadal now by betting the field I think. Nadal's game is very brittle and subject to many errors.

Lars von Dort writes:

Betfair has Nadal currently trading at 1.46/1.47 to win Roland Garros.

This is in decimal odds which translates to a 68% probability. The odds on Betfair are generally better than most bookmakers'. This UK-based company runs actual markets in sports results. Some may be familiar with Tradesports, a site that did the same, although worse, and is now closed. Or Intrade, which does the same for non-sports events such as elections (still going strong). Unfortunately, Betfair blocks access for some countries, including the US, due to legal considerations. I hope (online) gambling in the US will soon be allowed again without any restrictions. I believe everyone should have the right to spend his/her money as he/she pleases. Also, it would further improve liquidity…I've learned to respect these markets. There is no easy money and generally they are quite efficient. I don't see value in betting on or against Nadal here. The price seems fine. He has been dominating all clay tournaments he has entered this year. He did drop a few sets, amongst others to Gulbis, who may be an interesting player to follow this tournament (although he just lost the first set in his first round match).

Anyway, I'm not touching this market. I would certainly be very interested to see what Pittsburgh Phil would do.

My quest for value lies in betting on tennis matches while they are in progress. I believe this offers more opportunities than betting before the start of the match (or tournament). I'm about to graduate on an analysis of the in-play tennis betting markets. I'd like to write a bit more about my findings soon, if anyone is interested.

 


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  1. James Tar on May 24, 2010 1:20 pm

    The truly knowledgeable tennis fan who was fortunate to watch the Nadal-Federer match last week in Madrid should walk away from that match knowing who will win Roland Garros this year. It will not be Nadal. Market enthusiasts should take comfort in the Nadal-Federer market correlation which was invented by this writer.

    Federer did not play that match with the intent on winning. He was using it as a set-up for the high probability that he and Nadal would play 3 Sundays later for the title in Paris. Federer easily could have won that match after blowing the first set and dumping the tiebreaker. I was at first aghast at Federer’s careless play, but as I continued to watch the match I realized that he was using the match as an experiment first, outcome second.

    Federer was able to establish patterns of play that I had never seen out of him in all previous matches with Nadal. He has planted seeds of confidence in his mind, and seeds of concern in Nadal.

    Sure enough, the US futures sank upon the open that Sunday evening, and the market dumped all of last week. It is hard to know what might transpire over the next 10 mkt sessions leading up to the final in 13 days, but I assure you that in the event there is a Federer-Nadal confrontation, it won’t even be close. Federer in straight sets, perhaps four, and the market will have made the low for a considerable time.

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