May

12

 Hurricane season begins a couple of weeks from now and it's good to keep that in mind. The most active months usually come in the September-October time frame. Wilma was the first and only time I have been in the "eye" of one and she was curiously stronger on the backside than in the N quadrants. For what it is worth (often very little) the predictors are seeing a more active season this year.

Markets probably already factor in the season to some extent but Category 3 or 4 hurricanes can have a range of outcomes. I think studies have shown hurricanes to have an overall and extended negative economic impact, but that would seem to be an area for further inquiry. Offshore structures and activities come into play and prices fluctuate as storm paths meander.

Storm surges given recent events would not be a good thing this year.

Well, the Black Swanian is coming up on CNBC now….on cue.


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