May

6

BP's stock price is up, while oil and oil stocks are down. My guess is this means those expert companies and brave underwater Red Adair-types in the Gulf will have the spill staunched a lot sooner than the media expect.

Pitt T. Maner replies:

You are probably right given that the following division of Superior Energy Services (SPN) is involved and has done subsea interventions before. Media reports have highlighted that coffer dams have been used mainly in shallow water situations but the Wild Well web page suggests otherwise. Oil service companies are master fabricators and extremely creative — especially when constructing fishing tools to pull things out of boreholes.

Interesting though that T. Boone Pickens this morning thought it would take four to five months to drill the relief well to remedy the situation. There are still a lot of unknowns but smart analysts, engineers and attorneys will be able to sort out the HAL, RIG, CAM, and BP et. al. downside risks.

Wild Well by the way was one of the first competitors to Red Adair and crew (Boots and Coots) that we discussed a couple of weeks ago.

Subsea Intervention Wild Well Control has helped Clients to resolve subsea blowouts and well control problems through direct intervention in water depths up to 6000'. Some of these projects include:
· Blowout through broach at the seafloor in 1700' water depth
· Blowout through broach at the seafloor in 5400' water depth
· Direct intervention planning for blowout in 5500' water depth
· Subsea blowout in 2000' water depth
· Subsea well kill with use of additional BOP stack in 600' water depth
· Direct intervention and well kill in 6000' water depth after riser failure
· Direct intervention into wells laying on the seafloor with coiled tubing in 100' water depth
· Direct intervention into subsea BOP with special high pressure riser and snubbing unit

Rocky Humbert writes:

In the past few months, we have had three important corporations suffer substantive adverse headline/litigation/business news: Toyota, Goldman Sachs, and now BP/Transocean. It seems that the headline effect wears off quickly — consistent with an efficient markets theory — but this needs to be quantified, and consideration given to whether there is negative forward-looking alpha. (Remembering : Philip Morris, Merck, Cendant, et. al.) Are there any good studies on this?

Rocky Humbert, quantitative analyst, speculator and master chef, blogs as OneHonestMan.


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