Apr
30
Briefly Speaking, from Victor Niederhoffer
April 30, 2010 |
1. It is absurd to contemplate the ¼% movements in the S&P these days within a two minute period and to realize without looking at the news or having any outside contact that one can predict exactly what it was. A man was spotted at an airport in a polyester suit with a briefcase labeled S&P, Moody's, or Fitch depending on how South the airport was and the extent of the move.
2. A very interesting article in the Economist of Feb 2010 says that "the market makes the manners." The gist was that during the height of the economy tailspin everyone was nicer. A merger specialist says that when he went to tout a deal to a bank CEO, the bank CEO in the past would have his secretary usher him out after five minutes as he walked past 50 of his competitors. Now he says he gets an hour interview, the bank CEO tells him what the strategy is, and then walks him out to his car. Similarly with venture capital firms taking a few hours to tell management consultant how they see things. What is the economic explanation for this? The Freakonomics explanation? Or the Landsburgian explanation? And what is the market significance of this? How can it be used in romance and money-making?
Alston Mabry comments:
One thinks of the difference between the girl who has ten boys asking her to the prom, and the girl who has only one. Maybe there is an optimal number of suitors to maximize humility and minimize bitterness — say, two.
But the idea of manners, and the recent televised Capitol prom to which the former partners were invited (and surely there will be more dances this season), brings to mind Tullock and his insights about productive versus unproductive competition. How much greater is the aggregate cost than the illusory benefit?
Tyler Cowen suggests:
More "marketing" because companies are more desperate for new business.
Also, high unemployment means that higher IQ people are in lower-tier service jobs and higher IQ people are in general more cooperative.
Comments
1 Comment so far
Archives
- May 2013
- April 2013
- March 2013
- February 2013
- January 2013
- December 2012
- November 2012
- October 2012
- September 2012
- August 2012
- July 2012
- June 2012
- May 2012
- April 2012
- March 2012
- February 2012
- January 2012
- December 2011
- November 2011
- October 2011
- September 2011
- August 2011
- July 2011
- June 2011
- May 2011
- April 2011
- March 2011
- February 2011
- January 2011
- December 2010
- November 2010
- October 2010
- September 2010
- August 2010
- July 2010
- June 2010
- May 2010
- April 2010
- March 2010
- February 2010
- January 2010
- December 2009
- November 2009
- October 2009
- September 2009
- August 2009
- July 2009
- June 2009
- May 2009
- April 2009
- March 2009
- February 2009
- January 2009
- December 2008
- November 2008
- October 2008
- September 2008
- August 2008
- July 2008
- June 2008
- May 2008
- April 2008
- March 2008
- February 2008
- January 2008
- December 2007
- November 2007
- October 2007
- September 2007
- August 2007
- July 2007
- June 2007
- May 2007
- April 2007
- March 2007
- February 2007
- January 2007
- December 2006
- November 2006
- October 2006
- September 2006
- August 2006
- Older Archives
Resources & Links
- The Letters Prize
- Pre-2007 Victor Niederhoffer Posts
- Vic’s NYC Junto
- Reading List
- Programming in 60 Seconds
- The Objectivist Center
- Foundation for Economic Education
- Tigerchess
- Dick Sears' G.T. Index
- Pre-2007 Daily Speculations
- Laurel & Vics' Worldly Investor Articles
Market Economic Peerism
Quantitative Relativity indicates that, as the further one places one’s analysis from the systematics of a given market exchange, then the less likely one is likely to answer questions of crime, politics and sports relative to price action. Allusion to studies such as Economic Analysis of a Drug-Selling Gang’s Finances (2000) and The Impact of Legalized Abortion on Crime (2001) are examples why peer review may demonstrate how nebulous social-economic queries become once social scientists attempt to quantify human aspects constituting market behavior, romantic or otherwise.
Granted, human dynamics cited, such as iconoclasm and ingenuity, technical ineptitude, and moral turpitude as may be construed from attenuation bias, may provide answers for one’s queries. However, presented in the form of intellectual approaches (such as median voter theorem or an algorithm to detect teachers who cheat for their students on standardized tests), do such applications account for the coordinate system(s) that effect the activity itself (i.e., presidential election, derivative exchange)?
Why are mixed strategies important to game theory?
What are the rules-based parametrics for taste-based and information-based theories?
Once these types of questions appear, does not the probability (or predictive) values diminish?
dr