Apr

16

In a poor attempt to apply a bit of science to the art, if we look at a few attributes of the past 2-day move on Nasdaq, with the index trading above the 200sma and double closes above Mr.Bollinger's band, we see quite a steady historical north wind. The numbers look back-end loaded, but a repeat of the 17-for-18 up would put the tech index ahead by an average of 6.9%, or 2677, by mid-June. Of course this has nothing whatsoever to do with Friday…

Date             t+5    t+10    t+20    t+30    t+48

01/07/1976     3.2     4.9     9.2    11.3    11.0
11/11/1977     1.3     3.1     2.9     3.0    -0.6
04/14/1978     1.8     3.5     7.3     7.7     8.4
07/08/1980     2.1     3.8     5.5     7.8    15.9
10/08/1982     2.8     9.0    14.1    15.3    13.4
05/13/1985     2.2     1.0     0.8     1.4     6.5
04/17/1986     0.4    -2.1    -1.1     2.6     3.1
01/08/1987     4.0     4.1     7.5    10.5    15.3
07/15/1987    -0.4    -0.0     4.2     5.6     1.6
01/05/1989     0.8     1.9     5.6     5.7     6.0
05/15/1989     1.3     1.8     3.3     2.8     2.2
10/16/1991    -1.1     0.1     2.8    -3.4     1.6
12/31/1991     4.1     7.6     5.1    10.0     6.3
09/06/1995     2.2     2.0    -4.0     0.1     1.4
09/16/1996     1.5     2.8     5.2     1.8     5.4
03/18/2003    -0.7    -3.7    -0.7     4.6    11.1
07/08/2003     0.4    -2.3    -4.2     0.8     5.7
07/11/2005     0.4     1.5     1.4     0.3     1.2
04/15/2010    NaN     NaN     NaN     NaN     NaN

Avg               1.5     2.2     3.6     4.9     6.4
   

AvgPos           1.9     3.4     5.4     5.4     6.8
   

AvgNeg         -0.7    -2.0    -2.5    -3.4    -0.6    

PctPos            83.3
 77.8    77.8    94.4    94.4
   

PctNeg           16.7    22.2    22.2     5.6   5.6
 

Maximum       4.1     9.0    14.1    15.3    15.9
 

Minimum       -1.1    -3.7    -4.2    -3.4    -0.6
   

StdDev          1.5     3.2     4.6     4.8     5.1
   

ZStat            1.0     0.7     0.8     1.0     1.3
   

TScore           4.1     2.8     3.3     4.3     5.3


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