Mar

31

I have been doing some counting. This month we had very few down days, 4 to today and if the last day of the month is down [Ed.: as was the case] that will make 5. Looking at SP Futures last 12 years, ending 2009 (sorry, slight gap in the data to present) here is the distribution of number of down days starting with close of last day of the month and looking back 21 days including last day.

Number of down days

     Frequency

1     0
2     0
3     0
4     1
5     1
6     5
7     5
8     20
9     33
10    24
11    30
12    11
13    9
14    8

none above 14

The average down days per month is 9.9, but looking at the extremes…what happens one month out? Nothing earth shattering, but definitely not bearish after a bullish month and trend followers may continue to have their day. Of course much activity goes on within the month that this does not pick up.

Speaking of counting, my 2 year old likes to count. While at the beach one time she asked if we would count the waves, at night to count the stars. The wonder of children.


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  1. Lawrence Schulman on April 1, 2010 9:09 pm

    Months have 19 trading days(February) through 22(August). I think you need create columns by the number of trading days in a month based on the actual calendar(less holidays)and then plug the number of down days respectively. September 2001 would have had less trading days than any month. But I do appreciate the calculation you did.

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