On Wednesday the surf report called for 20 foot waves so I headed out to my favorite big wave spot. I ended up surfing way out on the north point where I hadn't surfed for nearly a decade because it hadn't broken out there for years like that. Weather and waves are cyclical though there are rather random local or short term permutations. I'm wondering whether market prices are similar to weather and have decade long cycles or more. Ice ages have century and millennium long cycles. Sunspots have 11 year cycles (prime again). If so, what are the differences or similarities in the long term market cycles. Always looking at the same 10-15 year data will not reveal these longer term cycles. .





Speak your mind

2 Comments so far

  1. Craig Bowles on March 17, 2010 3:02 pm

    There double sunspot cycles twice as long. The volcanic cycles are longer but they are all tied to planetary alignment and tidal pull. Tidal pressure really ramped up the last ten years, so volcanic activity has been up 50% since the 1997 or '98 low. Looks like the earthquake activity is surely up but don't have data on that. Should be great surfing as tidal pressure isn't supposed to ease anytime soon.

  2. Zhong wen shu on March 17, 2010 10:47 pm

    Cycles are evident, but the desire to control or benefit from pre-cognizent outcomes is obviated by the [apparent] impossibility of certitude. It’s a fun ride to rely on waves, except when they collapse suddenly.


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