Mar

9

I used unemployment data to calculate the month-to-month change in unemployment:

"chg" = (this month UNRATE%) - (last month UNRATE%)

Partitioned into Dem and Rep presidencies, each compared to zero:

One-Sample T: D chg, R chg

Test of mu = 0 vs not = 0

Variable   N     Mean   StDev   SE Mean      95% CI             T      P
D chg     325  -0.0086  0.2276  0.0126  (-0.0334, 0.0162)  -0.68  0.496
R chg     420   0.0216  0.2063  0.0100  ( 0.0018, 0.0414)   2.15  0.032

Under "D", there was no significant change in month-to-month unemployment, but under "R" there was, on average, significant increase from month-to-month (of 0.02%).


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