Mar

8

 stray dog riding on the subway in RussiaIn a dynamic talk about the adaptions of the environment, Greg Rehmke alluded to the stray dogs of Moscow. What can market people learn from them?

1. The dogs ride the subway and serve as watchman. They adapted from pets to work dogs. If dogs can change so drastically in their function in a few years, so can markets. The idea of doing the same thing over and over again when conditions change becomes a losing proposition.

2. The dogs use deception to bark behind their victims and to pretend to be your best friend by laying their head on your lap. Deception is key in the market and dogs, caterpillars, and humans have a million deceits up their sleeve. Things are never what they seem.

3. Only 3% of the dogs survive. But they lead a very satisfactory life, riding first class on the subways etc. The stocks that have been beaten down the most and survive, and even start advancing, like the financials, are good buys.

4. The dogs have specialized niches in which they ply their trade. Watchdogs, robbers, night raiders. To survive, pick a niche and specialize in it.

 5. The dogs are very sensitive to human interaction. They can tell your feelings and smell your nervousness. They are good to have around in the trading room so that they can tell when you are about to go on tilt, or the commentators or you are particularly stressed and need a break.

6. The dogs have learned to coexist with humans. They are not too friendly or too hostile. Many markets that used to be antithetical to each other like bonds and stocks learn to harmonize and change their relation from friendly to coexistence like the dogs. But they don't bite the humans either. The relation between the regulators and the regulated in all fields is similar, and is to be striven for.

7. Put a beggar on horseback and she'll gallop. The model was once devoid of private property. But when the guard dog attacked her dog, she cut it up. The worst slave drivers were the freed slaves in human times. The worst people to have on the other side are your former fellows in arms.

8. As income rises, the demand for luxuries will increase. The Russians now love the 55,000 dogs that are left in place. Before they tried to cull them but as they became wealthier they were able to be more compassionate. Everywhere the desire to be friendly and compassionate increases with income.

9. One notes that now the dogs are becoming vicious. 70 bites a day, a few killings.

10. The dogs all have wedge shaped faces and are medium height. The move from a high to low and then the same high is very bullish, and the move from a low to a high and then the same low is bearish

11. You must beware of dogs that are down on their luck as they have nothing to lose by killing you. Never short a down of the market. 

12. Dogs learn and diffuse to geographically related areas with some polymorphic modification. The dogs in Hungary do not ride the subways but ride the buses. They pretend to be with a passenger and wait right by their seat until the passenger leaves and then they get off at their stop. The moves in China and Thailand (I look around three times) diffuse to neighboring countries and ultimately to Europe and the US.

What other things do readers see?

Pitt T. Maner III writes:

The need to interpret key indicators — even if a dog is friendly, let him smell you first and only offer the back side of your hand and have it ready to move if the dog gets snappy. I had a friend whose older dog was very cute looking and generally nice but he suffered from a type of epilepsy and would bite down unexpectedly.


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