Mar

8

locustsLocusts tend to swarm in prime number intervals. It reduces the years in which there might be an overlap with other niche competitors.

Following this idea, here is a thought experiment. Any yearly cycle system must peak or trough on a multiple, making a prime a non-peak or trough in any given cycle system. That in turn means under a cycle following analysis that we are between either a peak or a trough. Since we had a trough recently, that would leave that we have not hit the peak.

Ki Zussman notes:

Speaking of prime numbers, here are the DJIA annual returns for years which were prime numbers (1930-present):

Date           DOW prime
12/1/2003     0.253
12/1/1999     0.252
12/1/1997     0.226
12/1/1993     0.137
12/1/1987     0.023
12/3/1979     0.042
12/3/1973    -0.166
12/3/1951     0.144
12/1/1949     0.131
12/1/1933     0.637
12/1/1931    -0.527

One notes these years had higher mean returns than non-prime years, but the difference was insignificant:

Two-sample T for DOW prime vs DOW

                 N      Mean     StDev  SE Mean

DOW prime  11  0.105  0.288    0.087  T=0.52
DOW           70  0.058  0.181    0.022

The next prime year is 2011, followed by 2027


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