Oct

19

Dow 12,000/4 minute mile = 3000, my point being that after Bannister did it other runners soon followed this supposed ‘limit of the human body’.

On May 6, 1954, the Englishman Roger Bannister ran the first sub-four-minute mile in recorded history at 3 minutes 59.4 seconds. Six weeks later, John Landy, an Australian, followed suit with 3:58, breaking Bannister’s record. In November, 2005, Forbes magazine declared after interviewing a number of sports experts that Bannister’s four minute mile was “the greatest athletic achievement” of all time. Source: Wikipedia

Russell Sears replies:

I would hardly say the four minute barrier is equal to the index barriers.

I defined an “index barrier” as not setting a new record high for at least 100 trading days prior and then setting it. I looked at the Dow and the S&P since 1950, then I looked at the next 10 and 100 days index exponential return (that is without dividends); then I compared these results with the average 100 day return.

Dow:
Barriers Broken: 16
10 day return 0.19% w/sd of 1.90%
100 day return 3.53% w/sd of 6.96%
unconditional 100 day return = 2.86%

S&P:
Barriers Broken: 19
10 day return -0.40% w/sd of 1.85%
100 day return 4.15% w/sd of 6.85%
unconditional 100 day return = 3.08%
My two-cent contribution to the offering plate of the ministry of non-predictive studies.


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