Mar

8

It happened.

For the first time in over two years the year-on-year growth in payroll tax receipts is positive. That is, the somewhat less negative jobs news that has been circulating is not phony. In the past we anecdotally observed some identical anomalies in both these data and the BLS jobs data, and the BLS anomalies lagged the Payroll Tax data by about five weeks. That makes us believe that no matter what happens to future payroll taxes, the BLS numbers will be positive for the next month or so. Certain politicians will take credit for it, and there will be a bullish tone to the stock market.

N.B. We do not use these data to trade the stock market, but think they're valuable nonetheless.


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