Feb

18

2010 Westminster champ, SadieThe "Superbowl Indicator" has earned a dubious place in stock market forecasting lore. Much less known, but statistically more persuasive is my proprietary Westminster Kennel Club Scottish Terrier Indicator "WKCSTI."

The WKCSTI is triggered when a Scottish Terrier wins "Best of Show," and over the past 103 years, it has correlated with bullish stock markets.

Year that a Scotty Won/Stock Market Return:

1911: 3.52%
1945: 39.35%
1950: 34.2%
1965: 12.45%
1967: 24.4%
1985: 32%
1995: 38%
2010: ?

Note: The study did not include West Highland Terriers despite their genetic similarities to the Scottish Terrier. That is left as an exercise for the reader.

Sources: A list of the Westminster Best of Show Winners can be found here.

The stock market returns can be found here.

Kim Zussman replies:

Using two sample t-test to compare mean returns for "Scotty" vs All, Scotty is significantly higher than all years in the series (SP500 or
facsimile, per linked site):
Two-sample T for Scotty vs All years

               N  Mean  StDev  SE Mean
Scotty       7    26.3   13.6      5.2
All years  103  11.4   20.3      2.0

Difference = mu (Scotty) - mu (All years)
Estimate for difference:  14.8962
95% CI for difference:  (1.8206, 27.9719)
T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = 2.69  P-Value = 0.031  DF = 7

Rocky discovered yet another market anomaly. Beam us up, Scotty!


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