Feb

6

utah backcountryThis weekend we're going to try Alpine touring in the backcountry far away from the resorts and helicopters. Avalanche danger is considerable. The guides dig a pit in the snow and look at the consistency of the various layers to get an idea of its structural soundness and whether there are ice layers, or loose layers or slabs that might break loose and cause an avalanche. The take notes on the aspect, temperature, depth.

I noticed Vic doing something similar with data. Rather than just look at charts, he makes tables and looks at the layers, the structures and consistency of the data elements and relationships. Though looking forward, it is important to understand the structure of the current and prior market, just as the backcountry skier needs to understand the structure of the snowpack. The theory is that the structure will affect the performance of the snow and the market.

It is also important to look up and see the sky, the weather, the wind and measure the steepness of the slope. These type of things add up to markets like today's, approaching a 3% drop.

For markets, the weather might be the economic climate and news. The slope steepness might be analogous to the interest rates, yield curve or ROC of the market. I do not believe they are built into the data.


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