Feb

1

Carroll Quigley (Bill Clinton's mentor) has a theory published in Tragedy and Hope that all civilizations tend to go through four stages: a start (in conquest), rapid expansion, crisis, hegenomic rule, and then contraction and decline. The contraction comes from the weakness of will that emerges from the solution to the crisis. Does this have market applications? Can it predict anything about our own stage?

Does the Federer win, as in the past, augur bullishness for stocks? As long as The Knicks have Robinson playing, they are bound to lose. He's what Bill James would call a player whose stats are a lot better than his game. Who would win the OJ Simpson award that Bill James gives out among CEOs and operatives from the Beltway? What are the reasons for the market's very special actions around the end of months when the bears have previously been in control? What is the equivalent of Bill James's marginal analysis of winning shares that enables him to predict the exact teams' records with variables such as hits, walks, runs, and total at bats? Also, what is the analog of his point that the only pitchers that last and are good buys on a team are power pitchers that have good stikeouts?

My friend Irving Redel believes gold will be a good buy slightly above 1000 as investors will buy it as the return from fixed income is too low, and they are frightened of stocks.

Thomas Miller writes:

I wonder why more investors wouldn't be looking at high dividend paying stocks during these times. Even if one is fearful of stocks, a diversified etf or fund with high paying dividend stocks, even US and foreign, would seem to warrant investigation for at least part of an investment strategy. Buying after market "corrections" of some fixed percentage number would seem to make this less risky. I believe a portfolio of high dividend stocks has shown to outperform SP 500 over time. The tax on dividends is lower. I wonder if investors would really pile into gold as an alternative to stocks, bonds, or cash, absent some international tensions rising or rampant inflation on the horizon.

Pitt Maner III comments:

Pre-announcement perhaps of interest to gold followers. Mideast tensions.

Meanwhile, state-run Press TV quoted Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Sunday as saying that the nation will deliver a harsh blow to "global arrogance" on February 11.

the counter:

The deployments include expanded land-based Patriot defensive missile installations in Kuwait, Qatar, UAE and Bahrain, as well as Navy ships with missile defense systems within striking distance in and around the Mediterranean, officials said.

And here is an article about Iran as as explanation for rise in price of oil from July 2008.


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3 Comments so far

  1. james tar on February 1, 2010 1:05 pm

    The Federer/Stocks Bullish correlation is only significant when his victories include a win over Nadal.

  2. Matthew on February 1, 2010 1:30 pm

    Taxes are set to go higher in 2011. Taxes on qualified dividends will increase substantially.

    1987 anyone?

  3. Dean Edwards on February 5, 2010 9:15 am

    I read your book Practical Speculation and found it enjoyable and easy to read. The most important lesson I learned from your book is "count, count, count". [Albert Bartlett said:] "Don't believe any prediction of the life expectancy of a non-renewable resource until you have confirmed the prediction by repeating the calculation." The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See

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