Jan

31

Drought, from Jim Sogi

January 31, 2010 |

drought in hawaiiEl Nino has brought drought to Hawaii. It rained once in four months. The last few days have brought a welcome rain. Many of the plants are already brown, and the rain is not enough to revive the shriveled branches and leaves. It will take new shoots of growth to replace the vegetation. I see this as an analogy to our economy. Some irrigation is not enough to revive dead industries and businesses. One rain is not enough to support the new shoots, especially where the new shoots sprouted with the one rain, or irrigation, and then it stops. The shoots wither. Further next year's drop is diminished as there is no rain to set the coffee flowers for the next crop.

The drought has caused fire. We've studied fires here before, and concluded they can be healthy in nature. However, managed fire prevention, while stopping the natural breakouts of small fire allows lots of weeds to grow, so when the fire does go out of control, it becomes much larger, much worse and threatens the entire forest and human areas. Again good analogies for the economy. When the week businesses are not allowed to fail naturally and get propped up, when economic difficulty does strike, it threatens the entire economy as chains of businesses go up in flames.


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