Jan

29

 Because the market sells down on a positive result in my mind doesn't equate to frustration or a negative emotion. I feel that it's only direction — emotionless. With that said, we watch fin tv, talk to people, read whatever and there is a mood to the market inwhich we are connected to. So the GNP number tomorrow is going to be good and above expectations. So the market should go up feeling that the worst is over for the recession, but wait — that means rates may go up now, or that O needs to quit the jobs bill now or that this is the news so it gets sold and thats what everyone is doing so its time to buy — an insanity of circular knots — like marveling at how big the creature's teeth are as he bites you across the torso.

Justin Mamis said it was called the "price news drug effect" where everyone fits the market into the news and news into the market — and if it didn't fit to a logic then your mind worried and got stuck in some dumbstruck sidecar being pulled along. His point was get off the need to equate the market with news.

What I think is interesting is who does (a collective group) the initial buying or selling? Is it some squad of dark minds, or is it a flock of birds moving as a single unit, or a school of fish turning at once under the connected forces of group travel — direction? I think more the latter.

Victor Niederhoffer adds:

Perhaps this musical will give insight into the relief of frustration hypothesis.


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2 Comments so far

  1. Nick Pribus on January 29, 2010 3:34 pm

    Watching the talking heads on CNBC or reading the headlines over he futures in the night, there is ALWAYS an explanation for the markets next or last move. “Futures up on Obama speech…” or “market down on financial regulation speculation” or “futures flat on earnings hesitation.” Well they need to sell news because people are buying news and when you order that cup of coffee they can’t give you an empty cup, so there HAS to be a reason, and they HAVE to know what it is or else why do we pay them. Following headlines is a dangerous game better to find real divergence from headlines and act on it.

  2. Chopshop on January 30, 2010 12:35 pm

    “At best, news is the tardy recognition of forces that have already been at work for some time and is startling only to those unaware of the trend.”

    “The Value of News,” R.N. Elliott’s Masterworks: The Definitive Collection, ed. Robert R. Prechter, Jr., p 277

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