Jan

24

The Game, from Allen Gillespie

January 24, 2010 |

 I could not make the game tonight so I was looking to sell my tickets. It will be a sell-out crowd.

1) First, I got some inquiries from insiders (neighbors, friends, etc.) if I was going to use my tickets. I would never accept an offer above face from a friend due to social reasons, so fortunately I delayed and they made other plans.

Trader Lesson: Insiders always call early and expect a great bargain. In fact, the final difference was about a 1/3. If selling to an insider wait, if buying buy along with them. Just like when the market fell hard insiders bought with great abandon. After all, if you are on the board of the New York Fed it would be impolite not to buy Goldman when the shares were in the 70s from over 200. After all you are friends. Do not befriend your brokerage firm.

2) The opening offers were on average extreme. Bargain hunters.

Trader Lessons: Patience can pay. Follow the Senator's advice and look for an early extreme.

3) After a couple of hours prices settled into a tight range, with a couple of extremes, but these bids were false as they found other tickets.

Trader Lesson: Be quick and skeptical of those good offers — they are just running stops.

4) On average prices were lower the more convenient the geographic distance between buyer and seller. Watch out when too much foreign money piles into a market.

Trader Lesson: Look at markets using various base currencies.

5) Finally, on a rainy day, watch the game from the comfort of your own home as only the young need to stay up late when tip-off is 9pm and the game is on ESPN.


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