Dec

18

At least there was a 16 point range for the first day above 10 in the last 8 with 2 million volume, thereby letting the public switch out of good and stop out when the margin and uncle point overly trepidatious.

As collab notes, gold and the S&P crossed and the Nikkei and the S&P always crossing. A study of crosses would be good. What other ones would be good?

Quarterly expiration within a hair's breadth of Dec 1000 looking to cause consternation.

Corn seems to hit 400 with disproportionately large frequency.

Grains very close to where they were 100 years ago, showing that inflation and commodity bulls are charlatans.

The antitrust actions against the technology leader have to seem a pall to all businesses and investors similar to those that have led so many times to crashes in the last 150 years, but this must be quantified.

Also to be quantified are the changing relations of leaks of important information in the well worn corridors. An Ellsworth Vines can no longer play tennis on the clay courts of Pennsylvania Avenue to get a dispensation for the leader of his pro tour.


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4 Comments so far

  1. Rocky Humbert on December 18, 2009 4:56 pm

    The Chair writes: “Grains very close to where they were 100 years ago, showing that inflation and commodity bulls are charlatans.”

    Fact check, please.

    According to the CRB Yearbook, in 1909, wheat was trading at 55. Last print 550. Compounded rate of return is 4.75%. Likewise, in 1909, corn was trading at 40, last print 400. Compounded rate of return is 4.75%.

    Sir: I may be a fool. But I’m not a charlatan. If this isn’t “inflation,” then what is?

  2. Rocky Humbert on December 18, 2009 5:11 pm

    As my previous commented admitted, I may be a fool. This is confirmed by the fact that I placed my decimal point in the wrong place. But my point remains …

  3. vniederhoffer on December 19, 2009 12:31 am

    Yes, you're no charlatan, but 3% a year compounded and a 10 fold increase are much less than the triumphal 10000 fold returns, wouldn't you say? Starting points must be considered also. vic

  4. Kermit Johnson on December 19, 2009 8:26 am

    Corn is an especially interesting commodity. If you are looking at *cash* corn, perhaps the correct way would be to compare prices relative to where we are in what I call the ‘thirty year’ bull markets. Of course, there is no way of knowing if the top is now in, or if we will put it in with an actual supply problem rather than a perceived possible problem.

    Of course, what makes corn so interesting is the relentless trend of the adjusted rollover contract, assuming a person is trading futures and not cash. Nothing else I have seen exhibits such a strong and relentless bias.

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