Dec

12

Isn't the quitting of golf by Tiger symptomatic of the redistribution scheme to the cronies that puts individual achievement and property rights on the lowest rung of the totem pole, and doesn't this have predictive value for the market the next year?

The average standard deviation of the market the last several years is 20 and the average mean absolute deviation is 14, and the average range is 19. The relation between the mean absolute deviation and standard deviation is consistent with the expected proportion of √(2/π) or about 4/5 for a normal distribution. The average range of high and low would appear to approach the standard deviation. Dixon's Q-test, which takes the furthest point out in a sample and compares it to its nearest neighbor as a test of whether the point belongs in the sample, relative to its range, (outlier - nearest neighbor)/range, which, for example, is rejected at the 90% confidence level for 10 observations, should be used much more frequently by quantitative speculators in many different areas.

Alan Millhone adds:

Tiger / BuickTiger is worth a billion (for now). He is/was paid $100m a year for three endorsements. If those three pull their sponsorship they will save the $100m yet their bottom lines may suffer without Tiger touting their products.

The American public will soon forget, just like Gary Hart and Bimini when he once ran for a high office. I do know that Tiger started and supports a learning center and it would be a shame to see any of those things lost.

My game is checkers, and champions since the great "Herd Laddie" James Wyllie of Scotland who dominated the game in the mid 1850s come and go with the wind. Time marches on and stops for no one. Do some good while you are here.

Russ Sears writes:

As much as I admire athletes and think that their leadership roles can foreshadows things to come in society and the market, they also can simply be human.

It appears to me that Tiger is reacting to society rather than leading it in this case. He made the classic mistake many great athletes make once they come into great wealth: they over leverage themselves with women. One lady and a love of sport already makes one of them a mistress. In taking a pause, it would also appear that he is following the markets in trying to deleverage himself into a manageable position.


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6 Comments so far

  1. Steve Leslie on December 13, 2009 2:05 am

    Tiger Woods self-imposed exile reminds me of a similar event with another icon of a different sport. Few remember but Michael Jordan had a very potentially huge image problem back in the early 90's. By all accounts Jordan a large gambler, rang up some rather big gambling debts with at least one very shady character while playing golf. http://www.nytimes.com/1993/07/18/sports/pro-football-jordan-gambling-saga-has-new-twist-taylor.html Then Jordan's father was found murdered in North Carolina. Speculation abounded that James Jordan murder was linked to gambling debts that Michael had incurred with shady characters. http://partners.nytimes.com/library/sports/basketball/081693bkn-jordan.html Coincidentally, Jordan decided to retire from the sport of basketball. Once again questions surfaced that this was a deal that was orchestrated with Mr. Jordan and the NBA to quell any rumors and innuendo surrounding the myth of Michael Jordan. Some speculated that the NBA had a sort of "Jordan Rules" for the star. He received special treatment on and off the field of play by David Stern in order to preserve his legacy and protect the NBA franchise name. He unretired twice after this and regained world titles with the Bulls and made a short comeback with the Washington Wizards. Then after admitting extra-marital affairs publicly, Jordan goes through one of the costliest divorces for a celebrity from his wife Juanita in 2007 http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,266343,00.html Jordan was able to withstand all these controversies in the 1990's and into the 2000's and his image and reputation is well intact today and his marketing appeal is still enormous. Lessons here. A celebrity can endure scandal if it is handled correctly and some celebrities have remarkable recovery ability in preserving their marketing appeal. Kobe Bryant certainly was able to preserve his image even though he was charged with a criminal charge of rape in Colorado. And Magic Johnson certainly no poster child for the sanctity of marriage withstood his sexual addictions allegations both public and private. Thus this is also to be directed at the markets of today. We have learned through time that the markets have remarkable recovery ability despite some incredible obstacles it must endure along the way. What we see unfolding here today is the peeling of the onion. As the tide pulls back we learn who is swimming without trunks. In my view and the view of others for this market to go to the next level, there must be a dramatic change in employment figures for the positive. The notion of a jobless economy recovery is in no small part a canard.

  2. Kermit Johnson on December 13, 2009 11:19 am

    I'm not sure about your question, but what is apparent to me is how Mr. Woods situation is such a clear example of what can result from what you wrote about so well: hubris.

  3. Anonymous on December 13, 2009 11:38 pm

    The lesson you draw from Tiger Woods quitting golf is that the world doesn’t value individual achievement and property rights? Funny how two individuals can look at the same set of facts and diametrically opposed conclusions. Tiger’s “achievements” are being fully valued from where I sit…

  4. david on December 14, 2009 10:13 am

    A Abelson put it best from Tiger Woods to Tomcat Woods, what a pity he couldn’t keep his putter in his bag. What made him think he could trust a mistress, it hard enough just for the woman you gave a gold ring to. He got the toughest golf course ahead of him to play and his Dad not here to help………….

  5. William Brauer on December 15, 2009 1:48 pm

    I see Tiger selling golf equipment, but give me a break with some sponsors like Accenture. Chicago media talk on Jordan v. Woods focus on Jordan's ciltivation of relationships as oppsoed to Wood's distance from the media. Like John Kennedy, Jordan received a pass. Woods receives no such favors.

  6. Michael Cook on December 15, 2009 4:03 pm

    Alan - funny you should say the public will soon forget “just like Gary Hart”. I still remember that vividly - the photo on the cover of the Enquirer with a grinning red-faced Hart and Donna what’s-her-name on his lap. And now, everytime I see him being interviewed they bring it up. I think there are two reasons it’s harder to forget: 1) he really has stayed out of the public eye since then, so there are few new memories to replace the old ones, and 2)he imploded his campaign, and so destroyed his career. With Bill Clinton, the Monica thing was a train wreck, but he was already President, and somehow we find it easier to “move on” from that…

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