VNNothing worked today. All statistical relations failed.

After a continuous decline, a huge further decline occurred.

The bonds and S&P had coupled together on the down side two days in a row, and then the bonds decoupled up sharply while stocks kept pulling down like a archetypical electric circuit.

CIT finance got its $5 billion loan conveniently announced at 1 pm, and it was only good for a 10 minute 1/2 % rally.

The Fed came in with $5 billion of agency POMOs to liquandize their clients but the market still managed to drop a nice 1/2 % in the afternoon, repeating for the third day in a row a strong morning and a terrible reappraisal in the afternoon.

Companies continued to beat their earnings forecast with 80% beating the star estimate, the highest in history, but instead of going up when they beat them as they did last quarter, this quarter almost all of them went down.

The techs decoupled from Intel, dropping 6% in the last two days.

The announcement of bullish forecasts for the stock market by the favored analysts did not stem the tide when released at the propitious moment.

The early moves set the fixed number boys the wrong way the rest of the day. The moves after Oct 27, typically extraordinarlily strong for the techs, were among the worst on record.

After shaping up on Oct 27 the way it has so many times in the past with devastating verisimilitude, instead of turning around the way it's supposed to, it had the worst decline in a month.

The S&P went down yet again after setting big minimum upon big minimum in the previous days, but did not deign to give vigesimal extrema.

The most similar days to today performed exactly the opposite of what happened today, thereby proving once again that statistical significance has nothing to do with predictivity. Yes. That's it. The only thing that worked was the principle of everchanging cycles. Whenever complacency sets in. Whenever it 's guaranteed that the market will rise — why, then the trainers tell the boys not to whip them to hard in the closing stretch.





Speak your mind

4 Comments so far

  1. Faisal Danka on October 29, 2009 12:12 pm

    Very interesting analysis Victor. In addition to the Murphys law’s manifestation on 28th October, there was another element thrown into the mix. I mentioned early October (http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?cat=502), that among other factors, the lack of topline growth will really start to bite. A lot of this hot air in indices was attributed towards the expectation for a progression from cost-cutting profits to profits which are increasing in proportion towards topline growth. With initial earnings, that growth just isn’t there and also the wider economic indicators do not suggest a swift reversal in that situation.

    On most indices, we are above or close to 50% retracements from highs and lows. Another spike upto 61.80% is very likely, before reality starts to sink in. By that token, I am calling the top on this market for DJI (as an example) in the region of 11200/11400.

  2. Duncan Coker on October 29, 2009 3:52 pm

    As LoBagola would have predicted though, quite a romp through the village.

  3. vniederhoffer on October 30, 2009 12:05 am

    If one wasn't strangled by the monkeys beforehand. batu turf

  4. Jason Brown on October 30, 2009 9:14 am

    Maybe the failure of statistical relations is a useful measure of how much the market is driven by emotion.


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