Oct

4

I had occasion to follow the college football games this weekend and analyze the results versus the betting spreads as of Friday evening. The results for 44 games (arbitrarily picked by someone else):

Total games: 44

Beat the spread: 18
Did not beat the spread: 25
No action (tie): 1

Calculate the "net spread", which is the line/spread plus or minus the actual score spread. For example, if Tulsa (line: -14) beats Rice (+14) by a score of 27-10, then the net spread is -14 plus 17 equals 3. That is, Tulsa beat the spread by 3.

For all 44 games, the net spread stats are:

mean: -2.23
sd: 13.12

Gotta figure if the mean net spread is less than a field goal, it's pretty tough to beat.


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