Aug

30

If "everyone" is fearful of September and the end of this six month move, one must question this assumption and realize that most players have already deployed protective and aggressive strategies for the down move, pulled the CNBC reporter aside and told her that September is going to be wicked.

But the uptrend in the S&P is losing quality of advancement — volume shrinkage, dog stocks barking (FNM, FRE, AIG) and tight range closings in successive days — as Victor brought up and was noticed by Paolo for June before the correction — the calm signal before the storm? We have gone up 50% plus. Will it continue to push through quarter end, forcing fund managers to show all-in hands?

So what market behavior may we expect from this widely anticipated trend change? Sharp down and then sharp up into month end? Or will the uptrend hiker keep pacing higher, or just meander along? A long volatility trade seems more probable than a carefree canoe ride with hand dipped lazily in the river.


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