Aug
10
Briefly Noted, from Victor Niederhoffer
August 10, 2009 |
The S&P went down from 1200 to 850 without a reversal of consequence, and we will see if now that it has Lobaed back from 850 to 1000 without a reversal of consequence, whether it will complete the migration, trampling the same ground and path at a separate time. The "scholarly" faker Lobagola must have read about these migrations at the British Museum, perhaps sitting next to Karl Marx and the King who rode the tortoise in a similar fashion to my father playing Willie Sutton a match at Borough Hall.
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It won't — not with the retail money on the verge of panic any night now in China.
one thing I never really could capture about the Lobagola concept is when is one truly in one. For example how does one know that there is a 100 percent retracement until it is completed. This site has summarily excoriated Elliott Wave theory that states first is a 38 percent then 50 then 2/3 then 100. So what is its practical usefulness.
It reminds me of other events such as roulette or baccarat. here we know that red or black comes up the same number of times yet runs do occur. How do we identify when the course or the run has been broken. This is the key question I pose.
It is also similar to the statement that we do not know we are in a recession until it is over. So what is the usefulness in this observation.
Thoughts to be discussed.