Aug

1

An item posted on his blog Marginal Revolution by FoC Tyler Cowen reminded me of Robert Bacon's notion of "ever changing cycles" as people jockey for advantage, acting independently on common perishable information:

"The collective optimization of individual driving routes by drivers using realtime traffic maps slows everyone down. That is, everyone picking the "fastest" route on the map results in overall slowdowns (…)".

Scott Brooks sees a religious angle:

That's one of the reasons why the saying, "everything works until it doesn't" is true. People find something good and then they tell everyone about it – and then it's ruined. We all tend to want to brag about our "find", when in reality, that is the worst thing we can do.

I use this all the time when the Jehovah's Witnesses knock on my door. I ask them, "How many people do you believe are getting into Heaven?" Of course they respond that they believe only 144,000 are going to make it into heaven (or whatever the number is). I then tell them that if I found out that only 144,000 people were going to make it, I'd stop knocking on doors and telling everyone about it.


Comments

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

4 Comments so far

  1. Val on August 2, 2009 2:46 pm

    Is it possible that there is more to the 144,000 thing than you are aware of?

    To bastardize the line from the Princess Bride “…That point you think you are making… I don’t think it means what you think it means…”

    Jehovah’s Witnesses have all done the math - there are over 7 million Witnesses and only 144,000 go to heaven… Why don’t they worry about that?

    Did you know that the bible speaks of inumerable crowds of people who do not go to heaven but who live forever on the earth?

    Did you know that according to the bible, those who go to heaven have the job of ruling over people on the earth?

    Jehovah’s Witnesses do.

    So, although you probably have believed that Witnesses are just too stooopid to see what is wrong with the math, and that your canned question is leaving them all stumped and counting on their fingers in their service groups… you are simply misinformed.

  2. Scott Brooks on August 2, 2009 10:34 pm

    Val,

    I feel the love in your response and makes me want to convert to cure naivete’.

    One of the things that I have found in my life is that I am attracted to people or organizations that highlight how mis-informed I am and tell me about it in a semi-mocking fashion.

    So to give some shed some light on your darkness….I do know a bit about JW’s. My great grandparents were JW’s and I listened innumerable times to their prostylizing as a child. I found it facinating and loved watching the reaction of the rest of the family to their constant preaching.

    As to my comment about “not knocking on doors….” that may have come across disrespectfully, but it was not meant that way. As anyone on this list who know’s will likely attest, I am not known for being disrespectful….especially of one’s faith. Heck, I’m a Mormon, so I take a fair share of bashing myself from time to time.

    As to saying to “I wouldn’t knock on doors”….I say that with a smile on my face. Mormon’s are known for a knocking on a few doors ourselves with the vast majority of them closed/slammed or just not answered. So making a joke often times lightens the mood and gets the conversation going…..which usually ends when I interject idea’s of my faith and the JW’s usually don’t want to hear it or even give me the courtesy of listening.

    As to the nexus of the comment itself….a JW friend of mine, who has a great sense of humor is the one who told me about that saying….so I can’t even take credit for “inventing” it.

    So Val, if you want my two cents worth, may I suggest that you lighten up and take my re-read my words in the tongue in cheek manner that they were meant and use some of that Christian love to forgive me for not being clearer in what I said.

    Warm Regards,

    Scott

  3. Bill Welch on August 5, 2009 9:04 am

    I feel that after reading the Book of Revelation, Chapters 20 - 22, you will have a clear picture of what things will look like. Please read the whole book of revelation and get the blessing! As traders we can use it!

    See the link to www.e-sword.net for a treasure of free Bible Study sources.

  4. Jim Davis on August 7, 2009 1:21 am

    You might be amused at this anecdote. In 2007, Andy Beyer, the handicapper and writer, did a long and detailed profile in print on a trainer that had 'put over' some juicy longshots at the Gulfstream meet. Turns out he was wealthy from his business and had a flair for training as well. Anyhow, here it is 2009 and they're running at Saratoga. This trainer has a first time starter in the 10th, brought his own jockey from out of town, and it was a cheap race where anything that can run at all has a chance. To make a long story a little shorter, the horse goes wire to wire at 45-1 and Andy Beyer claims he didn't bet a dime on it. Apparently neither did many others at that huge price. So sometimes, even when the information is there and readily available, it does not get 'respected'. I've seen it before, I've done it myself. You wonder after the event if some sort of temporary insanity is not to blame. Something like the $100 bill lying on the floor that the economist claims can't be there, else someone would have picked it up already.

Archives

Resources & Links

Search