Jul

26

4 Pres1. With all the talk about Harvard's cutting expenses and no longer serving hot breakfasts to its students, and making the buses run every 20 minutes rather than 10, leaving the cranes amast like Thailand in 1997 in the halted Allston expansion, one wonders if Professor Gates's driver who helped him enter his house is a perk that distinguished professors can still claim or if this driver was a new recruit, from a service, who was willing to go above and beyond the pale for a stranger.

2. Looking at the performance of the major indexes to date, one notes that the three biggest markets are up 1 to 10% and the average of the 150 medium markets is up about 40%. What is the explanation for this divergence other than the ruination of incentives, and the adjustment of price levels to equal after service returns in the future? Israel up 3% over nite and 44% on year to date gives good precis of what would have happened.

3. The Nikkei broke 10000 at the open today and hasn't looked back trading at 10135 as we speak and how long will it be before both the Nikkei and S & P trade at the same price again?

4. The Nasdaq leads the S&P the way a horse leads a carriage.

5. The Dow has gone thru 9000 with aplomb and it will be interesting to see how long it takes to get to 10000. It took four trading days to go from 10325 on 10 03 08 to 8579 on 10 09 08.

6. The GaveKal people have been right as rain this year, and always have an antidote to any bearish sentiment or ideas that anyone might make.

7. I am reading Bayesian Models for Categorical Data by Congdon and am pleased to find many references to the work of Leo Goodman from the 1960s still carry the day, but find the chapter on time series analysis somewhat dull and labored except for an intriguing reference to integer time series analysis.


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