Jul

8

T R t S1. One of those curious consiliences, completely non-random, arises today with the Nikkei closing at 9430 and the dollar:yen at 9430.

2. The minimum in the S&P yesterday was preceded by tremendous falls in all markets especially India.

3. The baseball managers like to take their pitchers out of games when they throw 100 pitches. What's the comparable quantification that works in markets. How about 10 days without something bad?

4. The difference between the effectiveness of a pitcher who throws 95 miles an hour like Kershaw and Pelfrey who throws 90 is like the difference between a profit and loss.

5. Will someone please tell me why this or that monthly seasonally adjusted retrospective economic announcement is key to where the stock market should be and why this randomness or staging is worth 1% or 2% a day?

6. The market abhors days of no change the way a baseball fan abhors a pitching duel.

7. The fixed income markets have very quietly ensconced a positive sequence of length three or more in many cases.

8. Patrick O'Brian's "The Road to Samarcand" is as good as any archeological novel and has economic wisdom and adventure in it that goes beyond any other modern American novelist.

9. The move down in commodities preceded the move in stocks but they often proceed in lockstep during the day.

10. There is something grotesque in seeing a beautiful stadium with 100 million naming rights or so like the one the Mets play in that is sponsored with alacrity and heavy promotion (with free samples and door openers outside) that comes from a company which has received a market value in aid from the service payers that is greater than their market value.


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3 Comments so far

  1. Ronald Weber on July 8, 2009 2:32 pm

    One could add the sticky correlation USD/JPY or USD/EUR vs. equity markets, as if they would refuse to rise without a weak USD, espcially vs the JPY.

    Or maybe that the USD/equity markets link is just a result of the artificial RMB/USD pegg as the main macro anomaly!

    Something has to give!

  2. david higgs on July 8, 2009 8:07 pm

    market making me feel like the pitcher thrown into the game with one out bases loaded bottom of the ninth with the number 8 batter at the plate. grand slam……sure to happen.

  3. douglas roberts dimick on July 9, 2009 12:04 am

    What of The Why?

    Instead of sports, consider the physics of those consiliences…

    The Quantitative Relativity of markets dictates that gravitational pull (or downward drift absent causation of price action) equates to that alacrity of stadium economics. That age ole notion of “time is money” is literally realized within this calculus, whereby nonactivity costs money due to time degeneration (or depreciation when expensed).

    Likewise, the phenomenon of economic announcements serves as the cause (for insider/outsider necessitated effects) by virtue of its media-worthy consonance found within political-economic cycling. Be it upon fundamentals or technicals, markets act as they are so constituted, dictated by the rules from which they are constructed and from so operate.

    I wonder if one has the numbers of long versus short positions (pre/post) relative to those cross classifications of big/small rises and declines?

    Such as factoring retail (retirement/pension) ratios and holdings as a condition precedent to any individual stock analysis, should one not first consider that insider/outsider ratio among market (or indexed) tiers of price support and resistance levels?

    I see it here in the Chinese markets. Mom and pop are not allowed to short; as a result, the sucker money is long, whereby insider advantage focuses on short-cycling declines, big and small relative to randomness and scalability of any cited consiliences. Cannot the same be said of US-based (if not worldwide) worker-based pension fund schematics within investment banking circles — as when so ruled by Greenspan and Rubin?

    If so, market incentives, as one so previously highlights, become merely the elements of formation for similar rules-based retail schematics. For instance, the post Glass-Steagall construct was an insider/outsider ruse, whereby the outsiders (or homebuyers and taxpayers a la the ensuing default and foreclosure “crisis”) financed insider (or investment banks and political parties) service charges and fees to effect wealth consolidation via derivative issuances and resales.

    During my last three years of travels along a comtemporary Samarcand Road, whereby, from Wuhan among Hubei to Shenzhen to Hong Kong to Macau to Beijing among Henan to Shandon and Shanghai to Yangzhou to here, Hangzhou, one may arrive, an hour away from the market facades of Shanghaiese Communists, to ponder the pooling reflections of China’s famous West Lake. As with the terrain darkness of China’s stock markets ranking last among some 176 countries by year-end 2008, silk-stained strands of like-kind (top-down) political economics seemly appear crocheted into and expanding globalized fabric, one born of and so worn by tribes of self-appointed monetary kings, who themselves appear to have no clothes, but are only so fashioned, neither of doctrine or principle, merely hooked along an intra-governmental pattern connecting treasuries as pillars with the daily speculations of a market’s posts.

    dr

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