Jul

6

The cross classification of moves in interest rates and stocks are always fascinating, always a web, but always changing. In the last several weeks, the bonds are way up, and the stocks are way down. As a foundation for considering these changing webs of who eats whom, and who must even out one's positions, and how they do it, I looked at a 4 by 4 classification of bonds and stocks during the same period ( no forecasting and no lags) with following results over last 2 1/2 years, the times when cronyism has been influencing the food web the most.

Given a big rise in stocks , the concurrent bond moves are evenly distrtributed. For a big decline in stocks, the concurrent bond move was 2.5 times as likely to be a rise as a big decline.

I also note there were an equal number of big rises in stocks as big declines, in a period when stocks roughly declined by 40%. This shows that given that there was a big move in stocks, the big declines were much more severe than the big rises.


Comments

WordPress database error: [Table './dailyspeculations_com_@002d_dailywordpress/wp_comments' is marked as crashed and last (automatic?) repair failed]
SELECT * FROM wp_comments WHERE comment_post_ID = '3881' AND comment_approved = '1' ORDER BY comment_date

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

Archives

Resources & Links

Search