May

17

 Something very significant just happened on a tennis court in Madrid. Roger Federer beat Rafael Nadal in a masterly, choke-free performance, 6-4, 6-4, on red clay.

Federer victories over Nadal have customarily been a very bullish immediate short term indicator for the SPX and I suspect we will be up a lot this week.

My bearish views are on hold.


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6 Comments so far

  1. manuel bravochico on May 17, 2009 8:50 pm

    I've seen examples of spurious correlations but this one is 1st place. Federer has Novak to thank. You really think Nadal would be at normal operating speed after going thruough a 4 hour and 3 minute meat grinder the day before? That's one of the longest matches ever, even for a Nadal..

    Good luck with the trading….

  2. CounterClckWise on May 18, 2009 3:14 am

    Funny. Correlation, causation, all that.

  3. Murali on May 18, 2009 4:24 pm

    Federer, barring the final game, was calm and composed. This win would do his confidence a world of good. It is also a timely reminder for all his critics that his days as one of the best players on the tour is far from over.

    Curious correlation, btw-In hindsight, accurate.

  4. vic niederhoffer on May 19, 2009 9:02 am

    Well known baseball correlation of defensive baseball being bullish is a horse from the same garage. See Prac Spec. Federer must have hit his backhand with much less wrist and played many more long points. Shows moral fiber that is bullish and part of falling behind Nadal in money race as Dow declines. vic

  5. manuel bravochico on May 19, 2009 12:28 pm

    Don't think so.
    I'd short this countertrend Federer rally. Nadal was softened up a lot by Novak. One of the clay court animals, and there's quite a few, will be eating a Federer baguette for lunch @ R.G.

    Of course getting a short Federer trade off is a bit of a hassle ever since Tradesports went bust. I'm going to miss that site….

  6. Matt Johnson on May 26, 2009 2:48 pm

    It was a sweet win.
    Fed seems solid so far at the French…

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