May

9

The news pundits are flummoxed by the up market despite their dribble of bad news. They loved to say market down on "bad news" with the knowing nod that their news caused the market to go down. But now they look silly saying market way up day after day on our continuing dreary bad news dribble. Like the End Of Worldists, they can deny reality and say, "Oh, it's because the news is less bad, that it's going up." Doubtful.

Something else is at work.

However even the quants are having a tough go of it, even as data turn bearish, the market goes up, and keeps going up.

James Lackey writes:

I haven't seen a real number on the table here there or anywhere in so long I feel like a kid at a bucket shop buying on bad news because, "It goes up on bad news" but what are you gonna do. No one alive has seen what happened last year. We went from "it's like 1933" to 1973, now 2003 and we are "never pulling back again" "generational lows"… in the blogs in the only number I can find lately these things usually last just over 40 trading days… which is a good biblical number, after the 666 lows… and similar around the campfire handed down through the generation lessons. Question: what stocks are up the most? "Who cares? It's the junk and everything is up" Autos..? Are you kidding ? Well, the autos left standing of course.

Oh the love for Fiat and Ferrari, they are cool dudes. However Chrysler, Opel what else are they trying to take over for free? I love them, but I dunno who in the world is going to lend money to them to run their business. Perhaps the UAW can sign up some laid off Wall Street bankers or a venture capital man. ha.


Comments

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

3 Comments so far

  1. Anton Johnson on May 9, 2009 4:34 pm

    Do trends persist? Below are NASDAQ index historic 1, 2 and 3 week returns after 9 UP weeks in a row. Data from 2/5/1971 to 5/9/2009.

    ...............+ 1 Wk       + 2 Wk	 + 3 Wk

Max	 	5.77%	    9.65%	 11.04%

Min	       -4.59%	   -2.19%	 -4.06%

Median 	 	0.80%	    2.61%	  2.22%

# Occur	 	 29	     29	           29

# Down	 	 11	      4	            6

# Up	 	 18	     25	           23

 
  2. david higgs on May 10, 2009 9:33 pm

    when entire corporate america, wall street don't use real numbers, why you expect to see them here, the ghost will only dispute them anyways… all the best

    nice looking steer and calf, there ya go a number…

  3. Craig Bowles on May 11, 2009 9:01 am

    If you avoid the news headlines, the recovery looks pretty normal. Individual investors increased their allocation to equities by around 10% from close to 40%, so that would back off the next couple of months if similar to the last recovery and then move up later in the summer. Interest rate relative strength leading stocks is kind of strange but similar to 1975. Oil prices seem to be worth watching. Stocks don’t rise when both interest rates and oil prices begin to outpace. Short-term growth rates show this now. The long-term growth rate setup is bullish. Viewing the relative performance of these is like a down and dirty read on the economic setup real time. You also can get a read with sector performance. Financials made a similar relative performance high as last month’s full moon which is really freaky but the bearish sector setup has previously been led by strong relative performance by basic materials and energy.

Archives

Resources & Links

Search