In a recent discussion with my father, an astrophysicist, I was trying to learn about the scientific discovery process or more precisely the mind of the researcher, the thinking, and the feelings that are a part of the journey. Later a friend, also an astrophysicist, suggested this list of fallacies.

It is interesting how the mind sometimes falls prey to fallacies and at other times creates them. It is also interesting how the market (or the various participants) sometimes build stories based on one or more of these. Even the numbers that stand for themselves sometimes play these games.

As a mental exercise, I thought it might be fun to try to determine which are particularly applicable on a given day.





Speak your mind

2 Comments so far

  1. Craig Bowles on May 1, 2009 6:46 am

    Not only the mind but computer models. The Browning Newsletter recently talked about how blindly following financial models over using common sense led to the destruction of AIG and we're similarly putting faith in climate models. 22 climate models range from a warm El Nino developing by may to the La Nina continuing until next January, so completely opposite findings. The Panel on Climate Change admitted they need computers about 1000 times more powerful than present to improve their forecasts.

  2. Edmond Mekertichian on May 1, 2009 10:20 am

    Dr. Niederhoffer
    I am a veteran trader of 25 years, past member of NYMEX, COMEX, NYCTN, NYFE, CBOT and CME. I have a very specific question and problem that you may be able to help a fellow trader with. How can I contact you? I would appreciate your help.

    My contact information:
    Edmond Mekertichian, edmond at mekertichian dot com

     [Editor: anyone may write to vic at vic2009 at dailyspeculations dot com]


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