Apr

23

Lost Decade, by James Sogi

April 23, 2009 |

The last two real estate cycles took a decade each to play out. This one should not be much different. The last banking S/L crisis took a decade to shake out. This one is worse. In the 70's it took a decade for people to look at stocks again. I fear the same will happen this time. Wall Street itself has been gutted and the investment banks gone, the jobs are gone, many of the funds are gone. The stimulus will not necessarily trigger hyper inflation of consumer prices as some believe will happen as predicted by the expectations numbers. This is not to say there will not be many opportunities, because in each of the instances fortunes were built. The tactics and strategies will need to change. They have already in the equity market. I don't know them, but understand that the debt markets are very different, and are changing rapidly still. A big picture is necessary even for short term traders to avoid trouble.


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