Mar

24

1. Here is an interesting troika with the Nikkei, DJI, and S&P all first breaking 7000.

date market price time

3/09 Nikkei 6970 low

3/10 Nikkei 6985 close

3/02 SP fut 696 low

3/03 SP fut 686 low

3/02 DJI ind 6753 close

3/18 Nikk fu 8005 open

3/23 Nikk fu 8180 close

3/18 SP fut 800.3 high

2/12 SP fut 817 close

Dow current 7775

Consilience not yet achieved.

2. From 2/13/09 to 3/9/09 the market moved continuously from 864 to 680 and from 3/09/09 to 3/23 09 the market moved from 680 to 817. Chart . Is this random or predictable?

3. Moves before the light:

   date     price   market      Nikkei    Russia

3/19     675    Tel Aviv 25     7865      784                                    

3/20     681    Tel Aviv                       792                                      

3/21     694    Tel Aviv          8180     850        


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3 Comments so far

  1. lawrence schulman on March 24, 2009 10:47 pm

    I think it is the dream of quants where these three averages converge(from their first three digits). These are among the most important indexes of the two countries with the highest world market caps. Now the quants can overlay the averages and when one of the them had moved a certain standard deviation away from laggard index they will sell the stronger index and buy the weakest and so on and so forth. With so much money involved(1/3 of the worlds market cap)and the two countries intertwined by world trade,stock rotations into each others markets, and central bank co-ordinations I think their movements will stay in synch for quite a time and that this is something the big money planned. This is the ultimate pairs trade.

  2. douglas roberts dimick on March 25, 2009 10:43 am

    Why the S&P here with the Nikkei? How about USD and Yen and other currency pairs? Seems that the Forex is a more efficient, transparent, and available to independence regarding deviation.

    No?

  3. douglas roberts dimick on March 29, 2009 6:37 am

    [NOTE: THIS VERSION IS CORRECTED COPY; PLEASE PRINT THIS VERSION AND DELETE PRIOR POST. SORRY. THANK YOU. DRD]

    Part One: 3

    Awaiting one’s percolation for my time there to come, consider what remains atop the list-to-do here in China — three years this coming Tuesday.

    Art of Conversion hits 300 bookstores throughout the country this coming week. See DRDimick.com.

    It is 4am. I just spent my first night sleeping on a People’s Liberation Army Base (or PLAB).

    PLAB – it’s military sounding… And if it is military related, we require an acronym. Enough said.

    Right, for three years here in China, I would walk by numerous toy-soldier-like guarded gates, sometimes giving a presidential salute to the guards. My girlfriend, Shelley, would comment that “you can’t go in there” – she’d say it rather proudly, rather begging-for-a-fight-like.

    Can’t – this word represents life’s paradox. It holds a multi-dimensional juxtaposition between imagination and enlightenment, negative and positive energy, and ethereal and base co-existences of the human condition.

    I grew up playing army on our farm. I served four years in the US Army as a legal specialist. My first of two one-year tours in Korea was atop a mountainside some 30 minutes south of the DMZ.
    Thus, were I live now, here, on a Communist military base, is diametrically opposed to where I lived some 26 years ago. And it is this leaver-like lineage, a forking in the “switching tracks of time” (the coinage of a 1L omni potentate, Professor Irwin Stotzky), that one may come to see how “time and money” are displayed by ideological predispositions of a given political, military, or financial regime (or era, I suppose).

    For instance, here at this Chinese military base, about 15 minutes (by car) west of the Line 1 Subway in Beijing, we have two ski hills, each with a chairlift and snowmaking system.

    Thus, the Red Army boasts a sports complex that offered skiing during two months of this past winter season. Yet the city experienced only two, light, nonaccumulating snow-flurries during the winter months.

    There is a Chinese ski instructor. I am curious as to whom he or she so instructs. Army leaders’ family members, I presume.
    What’s the point though? It is not Vail or Stowe. There is no social interplay. There is no glory.

    If there is no glory (or shame), how can there be an affirmation of the human condition?

    Well, because here in China, there can be no defeat. Right, no one can lose, for that means loss of face.

    And face is a finite source here. That is why there is only one political party.

    Chinese history evinces – because of the Confucian thinking, I posit – that this multi-factionist people of 56 ethnic minorities cannot function autonomously as a unified nation — unless by gun point, as with the present regime, being a “centralized democratic dictatorship.” In these terms, face is the contravention of a marketplace for glory and shame.

    That is why all inward and outward appearances projected by the Chinese government are unified: oneness. There can only be one China, for there is no rule of law, which would be required to permit civil, orderly dissent and opposition.

    For most Americans during my upbringing, Taiwan was China. Interestingly, perhaps, is the notion that China will not be China until it assimilates the democratic structure of Taiwan.
    It is clear that Chinese people increasingly clamor more for democracy. The young generation verbalizes that desire for change. The Communists recognize this trend.

    Therefore, China is not mysterious. It is a lie… one, big lie, propagated most recently (during the past 60 years) by advanced social and technological applications of Communist idolatry.
    Here one then competes for merely one’s wealth, health, or enjoyment? We will come back to that.

    From my room, I look upon a hill (not a mountain by Colorado standards but perhaps by Falmouth, Maine metrics) with pasture-like slopes, about the length of 10-15-20 (American) football fields.

    My father taught me how to ski at Hurricane Mountain Ski Slope in Falmouth, Maine, on a similar sized mountain-hill. Our farm was on Hurricane Road, in the valley, across the street from the dairy farm. In the winter, we would drive either the car or snowmobiles up the northwest end of our road then cross the street on Blackstrap Road to “the rope-toe.”

    Time passes. Now two houses are perched atop Hurricane Mountain. Horses graze there, being members of the locally-famed-trotter horse-racing stables. The farm has passed in ownership among three generations within the Norton family – yet skipping one generation, if I recall correctly.

    Here at “my” Chinese Army base, in addition to indoor and outdoor tennis – sorry, no squash – as well as a golf range, we have a shooting range. My hotel-like room boasts a window overlooking the 24 hour guarded arsenal.

    Actually, I suspect this building was an army hotel. It also has that New Hampshire-Euro-ski-era-like construction – still to be found, scattered throughout the Mt. Washington Valley.

    Charles, the director of this private school, says that I can go shoot when convenient. As the owner of three riffles (including my father’s double-trigger, Czechoslovakian riffle that he used for deer hunting) and two 45 cal pistols, I know already that this statement is code: when he asks the officer in charge for a favor, we can go. Until then, I cannot walk up that side of the hill as no civilians are permitted – the other side of the hill, downrange, is the drive up to the ski slope.

    Yesterday, Charles’ assistant, Peter, and I walked up to the ski area. Tree berries and dried leaves would scatter above our heads with each round of riffle fire – as we were downrange, on the far side of the target-placement embankment.

    Note: I cannot walk outside unaccompanied; I must have a Chinese person come with me.

    Query: I seem to remember TV interviews of Nixon’s people jailed after Watergate in the country-club styled prisons. Here, now, I think of Madoff. Is this what it will be like for him?

    The private academy here hosts some 50 students. These high-school-to-college-age Chinese boys and girls are studying to be tennis or golf professionals.

    Again, the metacircularity of life presents connections that I fathom how to quantify…

    During my four years of high school, my parents granted my life-time desire (at age 15) to attend Pat’s Peak Ski Academy next to New England College in Henniker, NH. My Falmouth High School lessons were bundled up for some six private tutors to teach me from November to May.

    Each of my four, senior years, I lived in a remodeled house at the based of the ski mountain (at least twenty-times the size of this facility) along with other fledgling ski racers. Most of my schoolmates where from the US, but we had a few from other countries including German and New Zealand. All so I could learn how to be a ski racer.

    Thirty-five years later, within Communist China inside a PLA Base, I am presented with deja vu in a refractionary spectrum of academic and athletic timelines. Here is my corresponding diary entry for a planned book, “American Private Equity in China”:

    ——-

    [Email to Irene, the aunt of Wendy Pan Pan, who is a 12 years old with Leukemia; my book is dedicated to her with the hope to raise money for her bone marrow transplant.]

    “My room has 4 medium-sized beds, so I put two together. Dishes, TV, heater, etc… It is a remodeled hotel room. Army green bed linens in a punk, Soho, peacenik sort of fashion contrast the recently painted, off-white walls and light-colored wood furniture.

    Dinner in the canteen was with mixed rice and noodles and chicken and vegetables. They watch some American entertainment channel.

    This afternoon, I played two hours of tennis (indoor) to include a group lesson with an instructor from Bangladesh — his name is Yannick. Handsome boy: maybe you can have his baby… So perhaps you better come visit one Saturday…

    Charles, the director of marketing and general manager with whom I work, seems like a nice guy. He was very good on our contract negotiation. He has some guanxi.”

    Hi to Pan Pan. Hope OB can see youall today.

    dr

    ——-

    There is a hot water schedule on the back of the room door. Hmm… 6-730; 12-130; 5-10.

    Note: Langley and Pentagon should consider that 25 years ago, atop a mountainside in Korea, I, a lowly Special Four Legal Clerk, had hot water 24 hours a day. As a threat to international peace, the great threat here is to Chinese people.

    Remember, here the army is more so for internal than external
    purposes. I remember my Education of The Prince: to maintain rule at home, create an enemy abroad. That is what the Communists do here – no doubt about it.

    The president of China recently stated at a CCP gala that the second mission of the PLA is to keep the Communist Party in control. When there are riots, the government sends army units from different provinces to “deal with” the citizenry of the rioting province – not wanting to risk inter-rank dissention or complicating morale challenges.

    Query: How much does it cost to buy (bribe) a Chinese Army colonel? See the movie, Spy Games.

    Driving from my old apartment, moving to the base yesterday afternoon, I commented to Charles, as he drove his black-colored Nissan luxury sedan, that “the Chinese are good at building walls…” social, political, economic, and perhaps most of all emotional barriers.

    We had exited off the highway. Skirting along-side a riverside town, there were several klic’s of brick walls being built. Workers were leisurely mucking about, some with bricks, some wheel barrows, some having trowels in hand, squatting like monkeys; one had a water tank strapped to his back, spraying freshly cemented wall along a ridgeline.

    I asked Charles what made the most sense to him: Buddhism, Confucianism, Christianity?

    Typical Chinese… First he said Christian worked well for him – Charles has been to the US for student exchange program promotions. After further Q&A by me, he said Confucian thinking worked the best for social happiness. Problem was happiness – whose happiness?

    He said the 5,000 years of Chinese thinking and living were “a tragedy” in terms of the 14 dynasties. “Why”, I asked, somewhat taken aback by his statement.

    Charles is an attuned political creature. I suspect he tells me one thing, tells somebody else another. He is in marketing anyway, so no biggie.

    I have a 90 day backout clause, allowing either party to quit the one-year agreement without cause. So we shall see… step by step as everyone (I mean everyone) says here… to include me after three years.

    “The leaders change but the system stays the same.” That is Charles’ answer to my question about the tragedy of China’s dynasties.

    We agree… It is the Confucian thinking that enslaves people. Having taught at the varying levels (from middle school to undergrad and grad to corporate), I have seen it first hand. No doubt about it – and if there is a doubt, then there is no doubt.

    Communist party officers, not school administrators, control the schools. Think about the ramifications of that a la the US education system. I shudder to think of a Jesse Jackson or Rush Limbaugh type controlling my (or our children’s) education – Confucian, Christian, whatever… Forget about it…

    I would say that, comparatively speaking, America is lucky. Then again, as Mao told Nixon, it is “Fankpee” (or bullshit). Such was his response when Nixon was greasing up the aging Communist during their historic meeting in Beijing – by Nixon commenting on how Mao’s writings had changed the world.

    America is not lucky so much as it has paid for its 200 years of testimonial as to how and why the freedom of the human spirit is the most decisive, thus the most fragile element of any social-economic endeavor. Consider: China has been unable to do in 5,000 years what America has accomplished in some 200 years.
    Now we return to the opening query as to what is the point. All here in China is done for wealth, health, or enjoyment?

    Right, it is about striking and then augmenting that subtle balance of confusion and fear among the masses while ensuring sufficient alleviations from those embedded within and so controlling that system of indentured servitude. 5% (or 70m) is the number. There are 70m members in the Chinese Communist Party. They control 1.4 billion people.

    There is no due process of law. There is no rule of law.
    There is no freedom of speech. There is not freedom of press – the government owns the press.

    One may not peacefully assemble to petition their grievances against the government or peacefully change the government.

    There is no religious freedom.

    There is no transparency.

    745am: There is no breakfast – so much for the three meals per day.

    Into six pages here, so I will sign off until Part Two is written. I have been working on it for a week. Should have it done for the anniversary this Tuesday.

    If you do not hear from me, you will now that I was either arrested or shot, most likely snooping around for a snack or
    practicing my chip shot on the driving range – capitalist that I am.

    dr

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