Feb

18

Monte1. Today's close in S&P was the third lowest in the last 13 years, beaten out only by a 740 close on April 4, 1997 and a 748 close on November 20, 2008. By Nov 21, 2008 the market was 792 on its way to 1003 on December 4, 2008.

2. "The No Stats All-Star" article by Michael Lewis applies the same type of analysis to basketball that a good spec should apply to the market. Most striking are the statistics on points gained or lost when a player is in the game. His hero apparently is considered the least physical of all the players, but is so good that he's a +6 when he plays, and he can make the Lakers better when Kobe is not in the game as opposed to in the game being guarded by him. One should look at multilevel analysis for comparable regularities in the market. What is the expected move in the latter half of the day when the yen is in the game versus the bonds?

3. Today's post-holiday move was the second worst in history, beaten on the downside only by the inside trading day following MLK day on 1/20/2008, down 43 points and a similar 3.5%. These two moves were followed by up 12 and up 30 the next day.

4. The book The Code of the West has many rules that the cowboys follow that are good for a life. Generalizing the rules, I might say they all relate to taking your life as you find it, not getting in over your head, not crossing the line, not complaining, working for the brand. To me, it means don't trade over the counter, make sure you have adequate capital, and don't try to get the edge on someone who appears weak. Many have now said they recommend Monte Walsh on DVD but like most things of true greatness, the competence of Monte or Dagny or van B. makes the second hand producers and directors scared and they have to make such things a humorous thing about a bygone day. On the contrary, the book Monte Walsh is by far the best Western ever written and it will make you cry and laugh and stand five feet taller at the end.


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12 Comments so far

  1. Steve Leslie on February 18, 2009 11:19 am

    You consistently bring up Monte Walsh as the best Western ever written. Sometime back, I wrote on Westerns and Western movies as to the tops of all time and we had a very spirited discussion. I also mentioned an interesting biographical fact about Jack Schaefer. He is a fellow buckeye born in Cleveland, went to Oberlin College in Ohio and moved to Connecticut and worked as a journalist. He had never visited the west when he wrote Monte Walsh. He also wrote Shane. background from wikipedia.

    I always was fascinated in my youth with Jack London esp. The Call of the Wild, White Fang and The Sea Wolf. His themes mirror many of Monte Walsh's. By the way Mr. London was accused of plagiarism a stigma I have faced by some on this site. If pure plagiarism were a crime punishible by death we would have few politicians that is for sure.

    I digress.

    I recall vividly reading Lonesome Dove by Lazry McMurtry. I have often felt that his particular novel is one of my all time favorites regardless of genre, and the way he develops his timeless characters is pure genius not unlike Mark Twain, John Steinbeck and Charles Dickens. Here you meet Texas Rangers Woodrow Call and Augustus McCrae. Cowboys Joshua Deets, Pea Eye Parker, Dish Boggett, Jasper Fant, Jake Spoon and Newt Dobbs the bastard son of Captain Call. Sheriff July Johnson, Clara Alan love of Gus McRAe and former town hall whore Lorena Wood. https://www.discountbooksale.com/p37116/Lonesome-Dove.html?ec=1

    It was subsequently made into a six hour miniseries and magnificently done up to the standard of Roots. It contains a spectacular cast with many Oscar winners. Tommy Lee Jones, Robert Duvall, Angelica Huston, Diane Lane, Chris Cooper, Danny Glover, Robert Urich, Frederick Forrest, Ricky Schroeder, Barry Corbin, Glenne Headly.http://www.amazon.com/Lonesome-Dove-Duvall/dp/B0018PH3L0/ref=pd_bbs_sr_1?ie=UTF8&s=dvd&qid=1234971462&sr=8-1

    Either way novel or DVD I staunchy and strongly recommend both for reading and viewing.

    Respectfully,

    sl.

  2. Steve Leslie on February 18, 2009 11:42 am

    This does not have anything to do with Westerns directly but I want to extend an open invitation to anyone who may be in or around the Space Coast of Florida for March. I live in Melbourne, Florida and our spring training team is the Nationals. If your travels bring you this way, let me know I will buy you a beer and a dog at the stadium and introduce you to some great real Barbecue at Kay’s in Cocoa.

    Contact me at: leslie278 | at | yahoo | dot | com.

    Thanks

    sl.

  3. Steve Leslie on February 18, 2009 2:26 pm

    I noticed that Dr. Larry Williams, one of our very bright contributors and father of Michelle Williams, will have his granddaughter accept the Oscar for her father Heath Ledger's performance in The Dark Knight. Congratulations to Dr. Williams. I believe this is a forgone conclusion as Mr. Ledger gave an incredible performance as the Joker.

  4. Stan Rowen on February 18, 2009 7:30 pm

    The numbers are somewhat off here. The 11/20/2008 close was 752.44 (not 748, which was the low). And how is one to conceptualize “792 on its way to 1003″, when the “to” date is earlier than the date sequence being discussed (11/20 - 11/21), and S&P hasn’t hit 1003 since 11/20 ? Please clarify.

  5. mike on February 18, 2009 9:30 pm

    I noticed the same point Stan made. The numbers are a bit off.

  6. douglas roberts dimick on February 19, 2009 12:18 am

    I read these posts of ours (mine included). Cowboys and westerns — is there this illusion as to the romance of the markets, as sense of individuality or lawlessness (e.g., Madoff et al).

    I wonder, as if in the "Wild, Wild, West" there were real consequences to what we wrote, such as criticizing the government or a corporation. Case in point…

    Item: Famous Writer Stabbed in Beijing

    When it flames, it pours. First, an architectural pride of the city is engulfed in a state of flames, then ProState in Flames, a famous Chinese blogger (real name: Xu Lai), is stabbed in a bathroom.

    Xu’s anti-establishment blog, which has been shut down and moved several times in the past few months, often touched on very sensitive issues, including censorship, the melamine scandal and last week’s fire. At 4pm on Saturday afternoon, Xu was talking about his new book, Fanciful Creatures, at One Way Street Library in Wanda Plaza.

    He was forced into the men’s bathroom by two attackers, one of whom was wielding a kitchen knife and preparing to cut off Xu’s hand while the other stabbed him once in the stomach.

    After the attack, as the two men fled the scene, a blogger reports he heard one of the men say, “You brought this on yourself. You know why we’re doing this don’t you?” Bystanders chased the men, and while they escaped, photos of the pair were obtained on cell phones and presumably on the CCTV camera in the building, and it is expected they will be caught soon.

    Xu is in stable condition, but the attack raises a red flag on the danger of dissent, not from authorities, but from strong minded fellow citizens.

    For more, see reports from The New York Times, Danwei.org, and BlackandWhiteCat.org.

  7. Steve Leslie on February 19, 2009 9:49 am

    Now that the Chairman has revisited his favorite subject Monte Walsh, I hope he shares with us his second favorite subject matter which is Patrick O'Brian's Jack Aubrey. Whom he named his son after.

    As a side bar. One of the kindest things he ever did for me beside sending me an autographed copy of his book The Education of the Speculator, was send me a framed copy of Susan
    Slyman's work of the sinking of the Essex by a whale on November 20th 1820. This was the inspiration Melville used to write Moby Dick.

  8. Stanley Harvey Eisen on February 19, 2009 4:48 pm

    A great painting, Steve. How long have you been such a good friend of the Chairman? I have not yet had the privilege of meeting him.

  9. Larry Martin on February 19, 2009 7:26 pm

    Steve Leslie regularly writes some of the most brilliant stuff on this site. His range of expertise astounds me. I ask myself how could one person have lived a life so full and drunk so deeply from the well of knowledge and wisdom.

    To take just one example, how was he able to so eloquently summarize the Principle of Le Chatelier ( http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=258 ) and its connection with economics via Paul Samuelson? That post had the kind of depth of understanding that only a lifelong scholar in both economics and the sciences could convey. Yet Mr. Leslie, does not work professionally in those areas–his is the work of an amateur in the most positive sense of the word. Yet another example (as mentioned also by Mr. Van Houten) is his casual familiarity with key statistics of the American bald eagle ( http://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?p=1831 ), not to mention the elegant prose that he used to convey the full background on this powerful symbol of America.

    His breezy confidence suggests that he tosses these articles off with ease, but is that just a facade that obscures the long hours of toil and effort that it would take one of us? I have no idea, but maybe this will stimulate him to share the truth with us. ;)

  10. Steve Leslie on February 20, 2009 10:14 am

    I am so humbled by your sincere and kind comments. To answer. I met the Chair via email years back. I knew of him by reputation when I was a broker at Dean Witter. He had a well documented and very terrible financial crisis in the 1990s of which I was familiar with. In the mid 2000s I researched him and emailed him. We began a correspondence and he sent me a copy of his book. He autographed it with this "In Honor of our Fathers" because of the great admiration we had for our dads. This began our relationship. I have read the book in its entirety perhaps three times and I re-read specific chapters which particularly interest me. One chapter for example that interested me is about Hoodoos. Those who seemingly are snakebit from childbirth. He also discussed games, gambling and horseracing, all passions of mine. As a result of reading the book, I forced myself to look at the world differently. Next I began reading this website on a daily basis and took in the deep thought that was being introduced. Back then one was rewarded with a stipend for writing creative articles for the site. I began to write articles and it became habitual. I tried to compete with the really brilliant people here who I have previously mentioned. Several whom I revere are Dr. Janice Dorn, Prof. Dreyfus, Prof. Haave, Jim Sogi esq., Stefan Jovanovich retired barrister and businessman, Laurel Kenner. There are so many others who deserve mention. This made me a much better thinker, a more balanced person and a better writer. I actually am very proud of my article on Winnie the Pooh and heffelumps and woozles. I thought that was completely unique and original. Above all, and I say this in all sincerity and candor, I give the lions share of the credit to anything I have accomplished these past few years to my idol, my mentor and my friend Victor Niederhoffer. We have never met, I have spoken to him but once on the phone, yet I know in my heart of hearts that he is the genuine article and deep down he is all heart. Just a terrific guy. I won't go into his quirkiness like wearing garish clothing and walking around in socks or collecting thousands of books. If you walk into a room with hundreds of people and wonder who is the smartest guy there, chances are it is he. In summary, and if for nothing else, I am an example of what can happen when one person takes the time to respond to one obscure email and take an interest in another's life what can happen. I encourage everyone who might read this to do the same. Just try to touch one life today, one soul, and see what happens. G_d bless all and, Thank you. sl.

  11. vniederhoffer on February 20, 2009 3:38 pm

    Thanks for all those hilarious comments, and please lay off the one person who sits astride such a vast arsenal of knowledge, comparable only to Mycroft Holmes, Moe Berg (whose spy signature I have on my wall on the Yankee Japan All-Star Game he took the spy pictures for), or actually for real Artie Niederhoffer. I use adjusted continuous algebraic futures in my calculations, and what I said with the typo corrected is true. vic

  12. Steve Leslie on February 20, 2009 8:09 pm

    Stanley Harvey Eisen is the real name of Paul Stanley, guitarist from Kiss. Are you the one and the same? If so and you want to meet Dr. Niederhoffer, I suggest you go to his monthly Junto meeting that he hosts in Manhattan. Look to the right of this site for information regarding such. It is my understanding that the Chairman has the original of the Essex by Susan Slyman in his mansion in Connecticut. He is also a great collector of books, art and artifacts. My great friend has described his mansion as more of a museum. One of my great regrets is that I do not travel to NYC anymore and cannot attend the Juntos. I believe February's speaker was Steve Moore of the WSJ and Fred Smith is scheduled for March. Best wishes, sl.

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