Feb

18

Monte1. Today's close in S&P was the third lowest in the last 13 years, beaten out only by a 740 close on April 4, 1997 and a 748 close on November 20, 2008. By Nov 21, 2008 the market was 792 on its way to 1003 on December 4, 2008.

2. "The No Stats All-Star" article by Michael Lewis applies the same type of analysis to basketball that a good spec should apply to the market. Most striking are the statistics on points gained or lost when a player is in the game. His hero apparently is considered the least physical of all the players, but is so good that he's a +6 when he plays, and he can make the Lakers better when Kobe is not in the game as opposed to in the game being guarded by him. One should look at multilevel analysis for comparable regularities in the market. What is the expected move in the latter half of the day when the yen is in the game versus the bonds?

3. Today's post-holiday move was the second worst in history, beaten on the downside only by the inside trading day following MLK day on 1/20/2008, down 43 points and a similar 3.5%. These two moves were followed by up 12 and up 30 the next day.

4. The book The Code of the West has many rules that the cowboys follow that are good for a life. Generalizing the rules, I might say they all relate to taking your life as you find it, not getting in over your head, not crossing the line, not complaining, working for the brand. To me, it means don't trade over the counter, make sure you have adequate capital, and don't try to get the edge on someone who appears weak. Many have now said they recommend Monte Walsh on DVD but like most things of true greatness, the competence of Monte or Dagny or van B. makes the second hand producers and directors scared and they have to make such things a humorous thing about a bygone day. On the contrary, the book Monte Walsh is by far the best Western ever written and it will make you cry and laugh and stand five feet taller at the end.


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