Jan

1

 I read a blog post this week that has some good examples of ever-changing cycles (and also displays the availability heuristic). The author of the post describes it as “perfectly rational” behavior to extrapolate from the recent past as a guess for the future.Former Fed. Chairman Alan Greenspan would also endorse the phrasing. In a May 2001 speech he said:

The longer an economy expands at a solid rate, the more people are likely to project that rate forward, eroding previous caution. This is a perfectly rational response. If people were accustomed to a three-year business cycle, they would exhibit far greater caution going into the third year of an expansion than if their normal experiences tended more to ten-year cycles [Read More]


Comments

Name

Email

Website

Speak your mind

Archives

Resources & Links

Search