Feb

5

Triangulation of Direction for Stocks, from Legacy Daily

February 5, 2009 |

6 Comments so far

1. Gary Rogan on February 5, 2009 2:41 pm

   The market is being influenced by political decisions to a much larger extent than in the recent past. This is a much “noisier” signal than the typical combination of mass psychology, both in the market and the real economy, unexpected personnel developments, and relatively small deviations of economic news from expectations that typically drive the deviations from long-term, well-understood trends.

2. Gary Rogan on February 5, 2009 11:52 pm

   Continuous collapse of the European economy:

   http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/4527496/ECB-delays-on-interest-rates-despite-German-industrial-slump.html

   Can’t be all THAT good for stocks. “monstrous decline in German orders”, “biggest protests in 20 years” in France, “the damage in Spain, Ireland and Eastern Europe is starting to panic people”: doesn’t sound like happy days are around the corner.

3. George Parkanyi on February 6, 2009 9:32 am

   I find it fascinating when the market has big up days in the face of an economic nuclear winter …

   US ADMINISTRATION “We believe that in a year or so there will no longer be a functioning economy.”

   MARKET “We’re fine with that.”

   God bless the optimists.

4. douglas roberts dimick on February 6, 2009 10:01 am

   Technical and Fundamental Anomalies: Coincide or Correlate

   From my eight years of self-study about program trading and portfolio management designs, market situation modeling (state-input-state) appears at times to influence market strategy integration (state-input-output) based on session, swing, and trend applications of corresponding stochastic indicators and functions. If so, we might consider convergence and divergence correlations of related state transitions and outputting, particularly where there appears coincidence that may be assimilated as statistical deviation from imposed patterning (specifically, here the article observes to be channeling).

   The article’s observation of nondirection indicates a pattern, albeit obfuscated by noise, as Gary notes, being a technical indication. EU indications of increasing negative psychology offer a fundamental context that would coincide with contra-technical interpretations.

   When do isolated indications become quantifiable, standard deviations?

   I am not an authority on the subject, but I hazard that, at some point of recycling or reoccurrence, technical and fundamental patterning so assimilate if not correlate.

   Aside from the mainstay bull and bear calculations of the daily media, there “appeared” to be a drumbeat that a bull would spring from the blitzkrieg (40%) carnage; this would be from technicals, I presume, charting a rebound or at least some consolidating correction. Yet, as the article observes, “UAD” continues. Gary caveats with the EU fundamental indicator.

   Does UAD combined with both increasing noise and a negative fundamental generate a probability? How may it be quantified?

   The title caused me to comment. Triangulation is a central component of my architecture.

   In military basic training, when you are taught site adjustment of a weapon, triangulation of shotgroups (each of three rounds, each round being one firing, one bullet) is utilized. The “tighter” (or proximity) the trianglated shotgroup, the more accurate the weapon – hopefully, being you and your firearm of choice as combined post adjustment(s).

   Jeff’s excellent (12/01/2008) introduction of Parallax observation may provide insight as to the Quantitative Relativity (or QR) of how one may detect correlations to generate probabilities.

   In short, one may consider measuring relative centers of triangles to quantify noise. Parallax configurations of corresponding displacement(s) and range(s) may then allow construction of closedloop positioning, whereby UAD, in its variations beocme objectified states, distinguished within a market ecology, that present standard deviations, whereby session/swing/trend functions are so derived.

   Just a thought…

   dr

5. legacy daily on February 6, 2009 11:50 am

   dr may find benefit in taking a quick peek at http://tinyurl.com/c52a9e

6. douglas roberts dimick on February 8, 2009 3:54 am

   Thank you, LD. Upon perusal, just what the doctor ordered…

   Although not an expert here, I find your reference may help us understand where that nexus exists between the quantification of market situation and rules-based formulations of market strategy.

   V, did read this book? Note Chapter 11 on music.

   As mentioned in my prior article, I was impressed in 2003 to learn that the two brothers who founded Tradestation (and created Easy Language) were students of music — at Juilliard, I believe.

   Although I am without musical talent, my father played the French horn in high school. Over the years, viewing both his semi-abstract paintings with his body of career work, it dawned on me that there could be a synaptic-like processing between human endeavors such as music and painting with architecture, to wit: my father’s art form indicated patterning in both his paintings and building designs.

   If true, then extension of this assimilation to program trading and portfolio management invites examination of the relationship between the physics of a human construct, for instance, systematics of electronic exchange markets for financial instruments. Thus was born my theory of QR (Quantitative Relativity).

   Query: the correlation between receptive fields and statistical populations (relative to a data universe)?

   Again, many thanks, LD…

   dr