Feb

4

 The deception in the market is so subtle it amazes. Even nature I don't think has been so good at deceit. One example that comes to mind is the seasonals at the end of the month for various commodities. You can make money according to accurate numbers by coming in at this or that time. The only problem is that the market is so illiquid that you can't really operate on them at those times and are left to put it on during the liquid times when it doesn't work. Another one is the regularities around the earnings release. The market goes up after the release. But the problem is the releases are all regularly scheduled except for the times they preannounce when things are really bad. And you get caught long before the preannouncement and it totally dissipates the effect. The January bar is another deceit thing. it works for other months just as well. But it stays there like the angler fish just to make you think there's bait, and then you get short, and miss out on everything based on a random pattern. I wrote 100 pages on deceit in EdSpec and since that time numerous other forms of deceit in nature have been discovered some of them even more amazing than the market's deceits.


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