Jan

13

 To say that viruses are masters of deception is an understatement. They can't reproduce themselves so they have to trick the cell into reproducing them. And in doing this they have to deceive the cell's control mechanism to prevent getting killed. Since they have evolved over many billions of generations, they have become masters at deception. I was drawn to this subject as one of my grandchildren was watching a clip of Max and Ruby  on youtube. I stayed with him for the first few minutes, but all the sudden I heard a stream of curse words coming out. Apparently this is very common on youtube. The beauty of the deception was how they waited a few minutes to start the imprecations, knowing that the parents would be off guard. It is loathsome to think that some people would devote their time to hurting kids like this and putting them in the way of disgusting ideas and thoughts. It is also loathsome to think that humans can learn from viruses, and apply all their techniques to hurt honest people like players in the market. A good review of deception in biology is contained in University of Washington biologist Carl Bergstrom's recent paper "Dealing With Deception in Biology". I thought I'd test a few of these basic techniques to see how they work out in the evil market firmament.

Here's one. The virus S&P rests unchanged around noon but as of 1 pm is down a reasonable amount. It's happened 41 times and the market drops on average another two point by the end of the day with a standard deviation of nine points. The virus stays latent until midday within a range, with the midday price no more than 1/2% away from both the maximum and minimum of the day up to that time. Then it tries to reproduce at 1 pm, by going up more than 1/2%. The natural killer cells of the market come in and move it back 1/5 of a % or so by the close. Similar to my killing the Max and Ruby show after it was latent for five minutes, but then I heard it, and turned it off with a slam, and no more watching that tubular video for the youngster.


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