Dec

20

 The original idea, based on John Dollard's 1939 behaviorist reformulation of psychoanalytic theory was that when you're striving for a goal, and you don't achieve it, you're frustrated, and aggressive behavior is likely. It seems to fit with many real life situations, the anthropological literature, and case studies of the aggressive persona. Where there is aggression, you should look for frustration, and where there is frustration you should look for aggression. The theory was modified to point out that some frustrations don't lead to aggressions. Cues like guns and knives of an aggressive nature seem to stimulate aggression more than non-aggressive ones. And aggression seems to occur when it is justified more than when it isn't regardless of the degree of frustration. The experiments that support the theory are of the usual variety. College students given money when they shock fellow students. Kids told stories about hateful things by adults, and psychologists cutting into lines. The most interesting finding of a refutable nature seems to be that the closer you are to the goal, the more likely you are to be aggressive. For example, when you cut into a line in front of the second person, she gets much angrier than if you cut into it near the end. The whole subject calls for testing in the real world.

I have already reported studies of what happens when a goal is reached in the S&P. One needs to immediately study what happens when the goal is not reached, i.e. when the DJI stops right before the round number. The break of the Dow from 10325 to 9955 on 10/06, an unrequited 4 year failure from September 2004, when the DJI quickly rose from 10000 to 14000 in the next two years is relevant. It seems relevant that after achieving this goal of 10000 on the down side, the DJI slid 1500 points in the next 2 weeks, and 2500 in the next month, goals which on the upside had taken 10 years or more to achieve when traveling up the hill. As Lobagola said, you never know when they're going to migrate back, but they always take the same path. One must study this on a more microscopic basis to give some hard evidence to the reformulated Dollard theories so that it will not rely only on kids and students.


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