Dec

2

 Turkey prices are very seasonal. With the prices decreasing when the appetite increases for them right before the holidays in November and December.  The market price drops so it can clear last months birds right before the holidays. With this in mind, may I suggest the following changes to the hypothesis of the turkey study. Like the seasonal studies this is more descriptive than predictive. Buy when you think risk appetite will increase, and sell before risk appetite disappears. I stumbled across the following warning from S&P rating agency from Feb. of 2003. Of their 10 sectors (technology being split into tech and telecom) they gave negative outlooks to 5 sectors in order of negative watch (rating changes outlooks negative) . The rankings are based on those companies S&P gives a credit rating and are in the S&p 500 index which was 435 companies in 03 1. Utilities (worst with 49% on negative watch) 2. Consumer Discr. 39% 3. Telecom 33% 4. Tech 31% 5. Industrials. While only 2 sectors with positive outlooks. 1. Financials 2. Healthcare While not mentioning Energy, materials or Consumer staples. Looking over the results of the sectors from March 03 to march 07 with the Vix falling these turkey sectors outperformed the positive outlook with about a 50% r^2 to 4 yr return to rank worst to positive outlook. I'll leave it to the reader to develop a this into a more predictive/profitable study.


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